Beef, Poultry & Pork Market Update

Beef

Cattle markets saw modest strength last week. The February live cattle futures contract on the CME gained nearly one percent, closing at $236.10/cwt. Most other contract months showed similar increases. In the cash market, cattle traded one dollar higher at $233/cwt as of Thursday evening.

Steer carcass weights averaged 1,465 pounds, down two pounds from the prior week but still fifteen pounds above last year. Beef production totaled 493 million pounds, representing a decline of just over five percent compared to the same period a year ago. Harvest levels reached 553,000 head, which was approximately six and a half percent below last year’s pace.

Both the Choice and Select cutouts ended the week on firmer ground. The Choice cutout closed one percent higher at $360.77/cwt, while the Select cutout rose two percent to $359.71/cwt. Strength was noted across the loin complex and in several middle meat categories, along with generally firmer pricing in both the chuck and round segments, though inside rounds saw a slight decline. Ground beef values continued to trend higher, supported by increases in both 50‑percent and 90‑percent trim.

Looking ahead, cattle prices may be nearing a short-term top as upcoming plant downtime has the potential to ease some upward pressure. At the same time, lighter beef production could help support cutout values. As February approaches, seasonal patterns typically bring a softer demand environment, suggesting the market may remain relatively range‑bound in the near term.

Poultry

USDA young chicken slaughter for the holiday week reached 145.3 million head, coming in seven percent above the same week a year ago. Average live weights were 6.53 pounds per bird, slightly lighter than last year’s 6.70‑pound average. Total chicken production for the week reached 721 million pounds, a four‑percent increase year over year. Retail chicken feature activity dipped only slightly, down about two percent from the previous week.

Whole‑bird markets were mixed. National composite WOG values inched slightly higher, while foodservice WOG pricing varied depending on bird size. Mid‑sized birds moved up modestly, smaller birds eased a bit, and heavier birds saw a small improvement.

In the parts complex, white meat continued to show gradual firmness. Boneless breast meat moved slightly higher week over week and is up modestly on a monthly basis but remains well below year‑ago levels. Chicken tenderloins held steady, showing a small monthly increase but still running sharply under last year’s pricing. Wing values improved slightly on the week and month but continue to sit far below last year due to the extreme highs seen in early 2024. Drumsticks were softer for the week. Thigh meat continued its upward trend, supported by steady demand; despite being down year to date, prices remain above the five‑year average. Bone‑in thighs also saw a small weekly increase.

The turkey category remained steady. Boneless turkey breasts were unchanged on the week but continue to track significantly higher than last year. Whole bone‑in turkeys were also flat week over week and remain well above year‑ago prices.

The egg market continued to adjust lower. The USDA large shell egg index fell sharply again, down more than twenty percent week over week and over sixty percent month over month. With flock rebuilding well underway following late‑2024 HPAI disruptions, shell egg prices now sit dramatically below year‑ago levels.

Looking forward, poultry markets appear to be settling into a period of relative stability. Demand has remained resilient, and the gradual recovery in production capacity continues to bring balance back to the complex after the challenges of the past year.

Pork

CME hog futures and cash hog markets moved in mixed directions last week. The February contract, which is the nearest month, gained about two percent to close at $87.77/cwt, and most other contract months improved by two to three percent. In contrast, spot cash hogs slipped roughly 1.2 percent, finishing at $80.50/cwt as of Thursday evening.

Slaughter levels continued to run ahead of last year. Weekly hog harvest reached 2.68 million head, nearly six percent higher than the same week in 2025. Export activity remained active, with USDA reporting 966 total loads in international sales for the week. The pork cutout also trended higher, finishing at $93.60/cwt, with strength visible across most major components.

Within the loin category, prices were modestly higher, including firmer values on boneless loins and rib-related items, along with improvement in tenderloins. The pork butt primal softened by about four percent, pressured by lower pricing on both bone‑in and boneless product, even as more than 180 loads of boneless butts moved into export channels. Ribs continued to show resilience, supported by increased buying interest. Bellies strengthened as well, with higher pricing on derind product. In the trim market, both 42‑percent and 72‑percent lean trim gained ground. Hams posted one of the strongest weekly performances, rising seven percent.

Looking ahead, the pork cutout has held up well despite elevated harvest levels. Renewed momentum in hams and ribs is contributing meaningful support to the complex. Pork butts, however, remain soft even with improved export booking activity. Overall, the market continues to show a generally firm undertone as demand and seasonal production patterns create a more balanced environment.

Bacon

Belly markets are beginning to firm as January progresses, supported by lean freezer stocks and steadily improving seasonal demand. From January 8 through January 14, derind 9–13 bellies averaged $160.38/cwt, a gain of just over two percent from the previous week. Primal belly values moved only slightly higher at $122.23/cwt. Trading patterns showed stronger activity late in the week and into Monday, with quieter mid‑week action, indicating buyers are back to normal post‑holiday routines but not aggressively chasing product.

Harvest levels rebounded as plants returned to regular production schedules, increasing the availability of fresh bellies and helping bacon processors rebuild inventories. Side meat and trim volumes also improved, aligning with stronger pricing trends in both 72‑percent and 42‑percent trim. Despite the increase in supply, the overall pork cutout held in the low $90s, even as hams eased.

Cold storage conditions continue to provide underlying support. Although stocks showed some rebuilding in November, both pork and belly inventories remain below last year’s levels. This lighter buffer heightens the impact of late‑winter and early‑spring demand shifts tied to Lent, Easter, limited‑time menu offers, and seasonal foodservice resets. Historically, these trends help bellies and bacon gain pricing momentum heading into summer.

Futures and the cash index remain aligned with constructive seasonal expectations through late first quarter. Nearby lean hog futures are trading in the mid‑80s to low‑90s, while the cash index is positioned in the low‑80s. This backdrop keeps packer margins manageable and provides a stable environment for bacon production.

The next major data point will be the December Cold Storage report, scheduled for release on January 23. These inventory figures will guide processor decisions on whether to freeze, cure, or slice more bellies as Q1 retail and foodservice promotions build.