Beef, Poultry & Pork Market Update

Summary

Beef: Boxed beef prices rose across most subprimals, with strong gains in ribs, loins, and end cuts despite futures softening.

Chicken: Wholesale chicken prices continued to decline, but production remains elevated and bird weights are trending higher year-over-year.

Pork: Belly prices showed mixed movement amid seasonal pressure, with futures and cutout values trending lower despite a surge in export sales.

Beef

Cattle markets moved lower last week, with the October CME live cattle contract falling nearly 2 percent to $239.72 per hundredweight. Most other futures contracts also declined between 2 and 4 percent. In contrast, cash cattle prices rose by $4, reaching $240 per hundredweight as of Thursday evening.

Weekly cattle harvest totaled 567,000 head, up 4 percent from the previous week but still 7 percent below the same week last year.

Boxed beef values increased across both Choice and Select grades. Choice beef rose 2 percent to $373.14 per hundredweight, while Select beef climbed 1 percent to $354.74 per hundredweight. Most subprimals also posted gains.

In the rib complex, bone-in export ribs increased by 25 cents to $12.72 per pound, and boneless heavy ribeyes rose 26 cents to $14.01 per pound. The loin cuts were stronger, with Choice shortloins up 34 cents to $8.20 per pound, striploins up 87 cents to $9.71 per pound, top sirloins up 28 cents to $5.29 per pound, and tenderloins up 46 cents to $19.44 per pound.

End cuts also moved higher. Chuck rolls gained 17 cents to $4.67 per pound, and shoulder clods rose 11 cents to $3.87 per pound. In the round complex, inside rounds increased 17 cents to $4.22 per pound, and bottom round flats edged up 8 cents to $4.07 per pound.

Grind and trim markets strengthened as well. Ground beef 81 percent climbed 35 cents to $3.45 per pound. In the trim category, 50 percent trim rose 6 cents to $1.47 per pound, and 90 percent lean trim increased 9 cents to $4.10 per pound.

Looking ahead, boxed beef and holiday cuts continued to gain momentum. While recent reports of increased Argentine beef imports contributed to a dip in live cattle futures, this appears to be more a reflection of cautious trading behavior than a fundamental shift in supply or pricing.

Poultry

USDA reported a young chicken harvest of 172.7 million head for the week, down 1 percent from the previous week but 2.4 percent higher than the same week last year. The average bird weight was 6.77 pounds, up from 6.65 pounds a year ago. Total production reached 888 million pounds, a 1.4 percent increase week-over-week and 4 percent higher year-over-year.

Retail chicken advertising activity declined by 4 percent compared to the prior week. Whole bird prices were mixed. National Composite WOGs rose by one cent to $1.05 per pound. In the foodservice segment, WOGs weighing 2.5 to 3.5 pounds increased by two cents to $1.01 per pound, while lighter birds under 2.5 pounds fell two cents to $1.35 per pound. Heavier birds over 3.5 pounds declined to $0.85 per pound.

White meat prices continued to trend lower. Boneless, skinless breasts dropped one cent to $1.13 per pound and are now down 20 percent month-over-month and nearly 24 percent year-over-year. Chicken tenderloins fell five cents to $1.40 per pound, down 29 percent for the month and 25 percent year-to-date.

Dark meat also softened. Chicken wings declined one cent to $1.09 per pound, and drumsticks fell three cents to $0.51 per pound. Wings are now down 32 percent month-over-month and 49 percent year-over-year. Boneless, skinless thigh meat dropped eleven cents to $1.49 per pound, and bone-in thighs fell nine cents to $0.61 per pound. Despite recent declines, boneless thigh meat remains 2 percent above the five-year average.

In the turkey category, boneless turkey breasts and whole bone-in turkeys were flat week-over-week. However, boneless breasts are still up 273 percent year-to-date, and whole turkeys are 57 percent higher than last year.

The USDA’s large eggshell index remained unchanged for the week but is now 32 percent lower year-to-date.

Looking ahead, wholesale chicken prices appear to be stabilizing and may rise as retail promotions pick up. However, continued year-over-year growth in harvest and production could limit upward movement. Ongoing outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza in commercial turkey and egg-laying flocks may lead to price increases in those segments.

Pork

Lean hog prices declined across both futures and cash markets last week. The December CME hog futures contract fell 1 percent to $81.70 per hundredweight, while most other contract months were also down by 1 to 2 percent. Cash hogs dropped 3 percent to $94.98 per hundredweight as of Thursday evening.

Hog harvest totaled 2.58 million head, slightly lower than the previous week and 1 percent below the same week last year. Export activity picked up, with USDA reporting a 344-load increase in international sales, totaling 909 truckloads for the week.

The pork cutout fell 3 percent to $99.71 per hundredweight, led by declines in the loin, belly, and ham primals. The loin primal dropped 6 percent to $89.14 per hundredweight. Boneless pork loins fell four cents to $1.32 per pound, and loin/baby back ribs declined five cents to $2.57 per pound. Pork tenderloins, however, rose to $1.85 per pound.

The pork butt primal slipped 1 percent to $111.89 per hundredweight. Bone-in pork butts were down one cent to $1.20 per pound, and boneless butts fell six cents to $1.44 per pound. Export demand supported the butt market, with 116 loads of boneless butts sold internationally.

The rib primal declined 2 percent to $157.32 per hundredweight, with medium spareribs down six cents to $1.69 per pound. The belly primal also fell 2 percent to $131.16 per hundredweight, and derinded 13/17 bellies dropped three cents to $1.59 per pound.

In the trim market, 42 percent trim held steady at $0.84 per pound, while 72 percent trim declined nine cents to $1.04 per pound. The ham primal was down 2 percent to $97.17 per hundredweight.

Looking ahead, despite stronger export sales, both lean hog prices and the pork cutout moved lower. With no clear signs of demand growth and continued pressure on pricing, the pork cutout is expected to remain under pressure in the near term.

Bacon

The pork belly market continued to soften this week, driven by seasonal demand slowdown and elevated harvest volumes. USDA reported the belly primal at $135.34 per hundredweight, up 1.8 percent from the previous week, while the 9/13 derind belly fell 2.2 percent to $163.78 per hundredweight. This mixed movement reflects cautious buying as operators manage year-end inventories and avoid overstocking during a period of typically lower consumption.

Weekly belly volume dropped sharply to 3.7 million pounds, a 30 percent decline from the prior week, though still slightly above year-ago levels. Derind 13–17 pound bellies made up over 70 percent of total volume, but even these cuts saw price pressure. Buyers appear to be holding out for deeper discounts or relying on forward contracts to manage risk.

Lean hog futures echoed the bearish tone, with December contracts falling 2.7 percent to $83.32 per hundredweight. This reinforces expectations for continued weakness in pork cutout values through the end of the year. However, tight cold storage inventories remain a stabilizing factor and could support a quicker recovery once demand improves.

Looking ahead, analysts expect belly prices to drift toward $125 per hundredweight in November and potentially bottom near $115 by December. A rebound is anticipated in the first quarter of 2026, supported by seasonal supply tightening and limited frozen stocks. Current conditions may present a strategic buying opportunity for value-focused operators.