Beef, Poultry & Pork Market Update

Beef

Cattle markets moved lower last week. The December CME live cattle futures contract fell 5 percent to $218.77 per hundredweight, and most other contract months were also down by about 5 percent. Cash cattle prices declined to $230 per hundredweight as of Thursday evening.

Weekly cattle harvest totaled 559,000 head, which is 3 percent lower than the previous week and 10 percent below the same week last year. As of Thursday’s close, boxed beef values were mixed. The Choice cutout eased slightly to $377.97 per hundredweight, while the Select cutout edged higher to $360.76 per hundredweight.

Within the Choice rib complex, the bone-in export rib slipped seven cents to $12.58 per pound, and the boneless heavy ribeye dropped ninety-eight cents to $13.82 per pound. The loin complex showed mixed results. Choice shortloins rose thirty-four cents to $8.32 per pound, striploins held steady at $9.69 per pound, and top sirloins gained six cents to $5.31 per pound. Choice tenderloins fell sharply by $1.32 to $19.50 per pound.

End cuts were weaker across the board. Chuck rolls declined fifteen cents to $4.55 per pound, and shoulder clods fell twelve cents to $3.77 per pound. Inside rounds dropped five cents to $3.93 per pound, and bottom round flats were down thirteen cents to $3.88 per pound.

Ground beef and trim markets were steady to higher. Ground beef 81 percent remained unchanged at $3.62 per pound. In the trim segment, 50 percent trim increased ten cents to $1.83 per pound, while 90 percent lean trim held steady at $4.04 per pound.

Looking ahead, sharp declines in cattle futures combined with reduced holiday meat buying suggest further weakness in the cutout this month. Lower-priced beef items may face additional pressure if reduced SNAP benefits persist during the ongoing government shutdown.

Poultry

USDA reported a young chicken harvest of 172.7 million head for the week, slightly higher than the previous week and up 3 percent compared to the same week last year. The average bird weight was 6.71 pounds, which is nearly unchanged from last year’s 6.69 pounds. Total production reached 880 million pounds, up 2 percent week-over-week and 3.5 percent higher year-over-year.

Retail chicken advertising activity fell sharply, down 11 percent from the prior week. Whole bird prices were mostly steady. National Composite WOGs held at $1.04 per pound. In foodservice, WOGs weighing 2.5 to 3.5 pounds remained at $0.99 per pound, while lighter birds under 2.5 pounds rose three cents to $1.37 per pound. Heavier birds over 3.5 pounds were unchanged at $0.86 per pound.

White meat prices were mixed. Boneless, skinless breasts increased three cents to $1.14 per pound but remain down 4 percent month-over-month and nearly 22 percent year-over-year. Chicken tenderloins were flat at $1.40 per pound, down 11 percent for the month and 18 percent year-to-date.

Dark meat continued to soften. Chicken wings fell two cents to $1.06 per pound, and drumsticks dropped three cents to $0.46 per pound. Wings are now down 9 percent month-over-month and 44 percent year-over-year. Boneless, skinless thigh meat declined ten cents to $1.27 per pound, while bone-in thighs edged up one cent to $0.61 per pound. Boneless thigh meat is down 27 percent month-over-month and 25 percent year-over-year.

In the turkey segment, boneless turkey breasts were unchanged week-over-week but remain up 248 percent year-to-date. Whole bone-in turkeys fell 6 percent for the week but are still 39 percent higher than last year.

The USDA large eggshell index rose 14 percent week-over-week and 20 percent month-over-month, though it remains 55 percent lower year-to-date.

Looking ahead, chicken prices continued trending lower last week due to elevated harvest levels and slower demand. Reduced SNAP benefits tied to the ongoing federal shutdown may keep prices below seasonal averages.

Pork

Lean hog prices declined across both futures and cash markets last week. The December CME hog futures contract fell 2 percent to $78.97 per hundredweight, and most other contract months were also down by about 2 percent. Cash hogs dropped 1 percent to $90.90 per hundredweight as of Thursday’s close and are now 11 percent lower for the month.

Hog harvest totaled 2.59 million head, slightly lower than the previous week and 2 percent below the same week last year. USDA reported 865 loads in international sales last week.

The pork cutout fell 3 percent to $97.18 per hundredweight, led by sharp weakness in the belly primal. The loin primal declined 2 percent to $85.90 per hundredweight. Boneless pork loins dropped four cents to $1.27 per pound, while loin/baby back ribs rose ten cents to $2.57 per pound. Pork tenderloins moved lower to $1.79 per pound.

The pork butt primal increased 1 percent to $106.52 per hundredweight. Bone-in pork butts gained three cents to $1.17 per pound, but boneless butts fell seven cents to $1.34 per pound. Export sales of boneless butts were down significantly, with only 110 loads sold compared to 320 the prior week.

The rib primal declined 2 percent to $155.78 per hundredweight, and medium spareribs dropped six cents to $1.68 per pound. The belly primal fell sharply by 9 percent to $140.08 per hundredweight, with derinded 13/17 bellies down nineteen cents to $1.69 per pound.

Trim prices were mixed. Forty-two percent trim rose eight cents to $0.90 per pound, and seventy-two percent trim edged up two cents to $1.10 per pound. The ham primal dropped 2 percent to $89.84 per hundredweight.

Looking ahead, despite some strength in trim, overall weakness in international sales and continued pressure on bellies point to further declines in the pork cutout. With lean hog prices projected to remain under pressure and no clear demand growth anticipated, the near-term outlook remains bearish.

Bacon

The bacon market showed mixed signals this week. While the overall pork cutout eased to $100.71 per hundredweight, primal bellies provided some support, climbing about 4 percent to $144.10 per hundredweight. Despite this uptick, underlying trends remain cautious. Weekly belly volumes dropped sharply by 20.7 percent, and the 9/13 derind belly market slipped 2 percent week-over-week. Year-over-year belly prices are still down nearly 15 percent, underscoring persistent volatility and seasonal headwinds.

Lean hog futures added to the bearish tone, with December contracts falling to $81.04 per hundredweight. Slaughter levels held steady at 2.58 million head, keeping supply ample and pressuring prices. Cold storage inventories for bellies remain tight, which could inject a risk premium into forward pricing as year-end approaches. Market chatter suggests freezer buyers may step in soon if current values are viewed as a near-term low.

Looking ahead, short-term weakness in belly prices is expected to continue for the next four to six weeks before strengthening into Q1. Analysts anticipate upward price risk early in the new year, followed by stabilization in spring. For foodservice operators, current conditions may present a strategic buying window.