Beef, Poultry & Pork Market Update

Beef

Cattle and beef markets moved higher last week. February live cattle futures climbed 1.6 percent to $235.27/cwt, and most other contracts gained one to two percent. Cash cattle improved by two dollars to $232/cwt. Steer carcass weights continued to run heavy at 1,467 pounds, about twenty pounds above last year. Beef production totaled 424 million pounds, down 4.6 percent year over year, with a weekly harvest of 425,745 head, 1.6 percent lower than last year.

Boxed beef values strengthened, with the Choice cutout up two percent to $356.79/cwt and Select slightly higher at $352.06/cwt. Rib and loin items were mixed: ribeyes and tenderloins softened, while shortloins and striploins posted modest gains. End cuts showed broad strength, with higher prices across chucks and rounds. Ground beef and trim also moved upward, led by firmer prices on 50 percent and 90 percent lean trim.

Cattle prices have rebounded sharply from the early‑December dip, supported by tightening supplies reflected in the latest cattle‑on‑feed data. The cutout improved as demand shifted toward end cuts. As February approaches, beef demand typically eases, and the market is expected to trade within a narrower range.

Poultry

Young chicken slaughter for the holiday week totaled 127.2 million head, about three percent below the same week last year. Average bird weights dropped sharply to 6.40 pounds, down from 6.71 pounds a year ago. Total production reached 619 million pounds, a seven‑percent year‑over‑year decline. Retail chicken features were up five percent week over week.

Whole‑bird markets showed mostly steady to firmer pricing. The National Composite WOG value inched up to $1.19 per pound. Foodservice WOGs also strengthened slightly on most sizes, though larger 3.5‑pound‑and‑up birds eased to $0.96 per pound.

White‑meat items were slightly higher last week. Boneless, skinless breasts rose to $1.17 per pound, though they remain down nineteen percent from last year. Tenderloins increased to $1.40 per pound but are still seventeen percent lower year over year. Wing prices ticked up to $0.98 per pound, gaining modestly month over month but remaining well below last year’s levels. Dark‑meat items stayed mostly flat, with boneless thighs at $1.23 per pound and bone‑in thighs at $0.60 per pound.

Turkey markets were steady week over week, with boneless breasts holding firm at elevated levels—more than double last year’s price—and whole bone‑in turkeys remaining roughly thirty percent higher than a year ago.

Egg prices continued to decline as flocks recover from late‑2024 HPAI losses. The USDA large shell egg index fell twenty‑eight percent week over week and fifty‑eight percent month over month, placing it more than eighty percent below last year.

Looking ahead, wholesale poultry prices are expected to remain relatively steady through January. Demand for both chicken and turkey remains solid, and the gradual improvement in supplies should help keep markets firm without significant volatility unless new disease‑related disruptions arise.

Pork

Hog markets were mixed last week. February hog futures gained about one percent to $85.87/cwt, with most other months up roughly two percent. Cash hogs moved lower, finishing at $81.54/cwt as of Thursday. Weekly hog slaughter held steady with last year at 1.98 million head, and export activity totaled 604 loads.

The pork cutout dropped sharply, falling four percent to $90.79/cwt, with all primals declining. Loin values slipped to $84.02/cwt. Boneless loins eased to $1.29 per pound, baby back ribs declined to $2.59, and tenderloins held steady at $1.82. Butt prices softened as well, with the primal down six percent and both bone-in and boneless butts trending slightly lower, though export interest remained strong with 118 loads of boneless butts sold overseas.

Rib prices dipped two percent to $173.74/cwt, spareribs edged down to $1.89 per pound, and bellies continued to weaken, with the primal at $120.38/cwt and 13/17 bellies slipping to $1.49 per pound. Trim values were firmer, with 42 percent and 72 percent trim both posting small gains. Hams moved lower, with the primal down five percent to $80.51/cwt.

Looking ahead, seasonal demand typically slows following the holidays. Retail featuring is expected to remain light, and ample hog supplies are likely to keep markets steady to slightly weaker through the end of the month, especially for primals like bellies, loins, and hams.

Bacon

Seasonal momentum is beginning to shift in favor of bacon as the industry moves past the typical December slowdown. Belly prices are starting to lift from recent lows as packers resume full post‑holiday harvest schedules and Q1 bacon programs come back online. Even though bacon values slipped this week, underlying indicators show firmness returning to the belly complex, while the overall cutout moved lower. Market analysts generally expect raw belly values to hold steady to slightly stronger as January progresses.

Supply data supports this outlook. The December 1 Hogs and Pigs report showed a modest year‑over‑year increase in total inventories, driven largely by more heavy‑weight hogs now moving through late‑December and early‑January slaughter. This aligns with the strong kill pace your teams have been seeing. At the same time, the breeding herd continued to contract, reaching its smallest December level since 2014. Productivity remained strong, with pigs per litter hitting another quarterly high, helping maintain hog flow despite a smaller sow base.

Demand remains constructive. Mexico continues to be a key driver of U.S. pork exports and recently set new value records, providing meaningful support to the cutout and belly markets even as Chinese demand remains uneven. Lean hog futures opened January near multi‑month highs, signaling improved market sentiment and stronger fund participation across proteins.

The next major data point will be the December Cold Storage report, scheduled for release on January 23. These inventory figures will guide processor decisions on whether to freeze, cure, or slice more bellies as Q1 retail and foodservice promotions build.