Beef, Poultry & Pork Market Update

Beef

Cattle markets were mixed last week as nearby futures were flat while most deferred contracts trended lower. Cash cattle moved higher late in the week, supported by continued tight supplies. Steer carcass weights declined week over week but remain well above year‑ago levels. Beef production and cattle harvest both ran sharply below last year, reinforcing ongoing supply constraints.

Choice and Select cutouts edged slightly lower on the week. Within the Choice complex, ribs and the loin category showed firming trends, led by strength in ribeyes, striploins, and tenderloins. End cuts were mixed, with softness in chuck rolls offset by stability in shoulder clods. Rounds were modestly higher. Ground beef and trim markets were mixed.

Looking ahead, harvest volumes remain historically low, lending support to boxed beef values despite February typically marking a seasonal lull in demand. Significant out‑front loin sales are expected to continue supporting strength in the loin complex.

Poultry

USDA young chicken harvest declined week over week due to the holiday schedule but remained above year‑ago levels. Average bird weights were steady and slightly higher than last year, keeping overall production elevated. Retail promotional activity slowed on the week.

Whole birds were slightly lower, while white meat values continued to move higher. Breast meat and tenderloins strengthened further, supported by steady foodservice demand. Wing values moved higher on the week but remain well below year‑ago levels. Dark meat performance was mixed, with thigh meat firming while drumsticks eased slightly.

Looking ahead, prices firmed following weather‑related production disruptions in the Southeast. While gains moderated compared to the prior week, the poultry market is expected to trend steady to slightly higher in the near term.

Pork

Hog futures and cash markets were mixed last week, with nearby futures steady and deferred contracts firming. Cash hogs strengthened modestly. Hog harvest ran slightly below year‑ago levels, keeping pork production effectively steady.

The pork carcass cutout moved higher, supported by strength in butts and bellies. Loins were modestly higher at the primal level, though select subprimals were mixed. Butts led the market higher, supported by export interest. Ribs softened, while bellies continued to firm. Trim values were mixed.

Looking ahead, lower harvest volumes are expected to keep the cutout steady to slightly firmer. While retail demand remains soft, freezer inventory rebuilding should provide underlying support to both the cutout and lean hog markets.

Bacon

Belly fundamentals were mixed but constructive this week. The pork cutout continued to grind higher, with bellies contributing to overall strength despite notable day‑to‑day volatility. While some midweek softness emerged, the weekly trend remained modestly firmer.

At the specification level, trade activity was lighter, and select belly styles lagged the broader primal, highlighting continued divergence by cut type and timing. Cold storage levels are rebuilding from historically tight conditions but remain manageable versus last year, providing seasonal support as feature activity approaches.