Beef, Poultry & Pork Market Update

Beef:

The August live cattle futures contract on the CME rose 1% last week, closing at $225.80 per hundredweight. Other contract months also saw gains in the 1–2% range. Meanwhile, spot or cash cattle prices held steady at $236/cwt as of Thursday evening.

Cattle harvest for the week totaled 563,000 head, which is down 4.5% compared to the same period last year. Steer carcass weights remained unchanged at 1,411 pounds, though they are still 32 pounds heavier than a year ago. Weekly beef production came in at 486.8 million pounds, showing a slight decline from the previous week.

Wholesale beef values were mixed. Both the Choice and Select cutouts declined—Choice was down 1% to $368.09/cwt, and Select dropped 2% to $347.00/cwt. However, the rib primal continued to show strength. Within the Choice category, the bone-in export rib increased by $0.29 to $9.41/lb, and the boneless heavy ribeye rose $0.05 to $11.03/lb.

The loin section was weaker overall. Choice shortloins fell $0.27 to $8.14/lb, and striploins dropped sharply by $1.78 to $8.01/lb. Top sirloins declined $0.15 to $6.69/lb, while tenderloins edged up slightly by $0.11 to $14.78/lb.

End cuts showed mixed results. In the chuck category, chuck rolls gained $0.33 to $4.39/lb, but shoulder clods slipped $0.14 to $3.92/lb. In the round segment, inside rounds were down $0.05 to $4.22/lb, and bottom round flats decreased $0.09 to $3.83/lb.

Ground beef and trim prices moved lower. 81% lean ground beef dropped $0.24 to $3.55/lb. In the trim market, 50% trim declined $0.02 to $2.53/lb, and 90% lean trim was down slightly by $0.01 to $4.18/lb.

Looking ahead, live cattle prices may begin to soften as beef demand tapers off. While many beef cuts appear to have reached their seasonal highs, rib meat and some end cuts could continue to firm up slightly to offset declines in other areas.

Poultry:

The USDA reported that 172.5 million young chickens were harvested last week, marking a 3.6% increase compared to the same week in 2024. The average bird weight also rose to 6.78 pounds, up from 6.46 pounds a year ago. These gains in both volume and size pushed total chicken production up 8.7% year-over-year to 888.9 million pounds.

Broiler placements also increased. U.S. growers placed 194.6 million chicks for meat production during the week ending July 19, 2025—1% more than the same week last year. Hatchability dipped slightly to 79.3%, down 0.1 points.

Wholesale chicken prices were mostly lower, although wings continued their upward streak for the eighth consecutive week. Retail advertising activity declined by about 2% from the previous week.

In the whole bird segment, the National Composite price for whole birds and WOGs (with or without giblets) dropped $0.03 to $1.31/lb. In foodservice, 2.5–3.5 lb WOGs also fell $0.03 to $1.31/lb. Smaller birds (under 2.5 lbs) rose slightly by $0.01 to $1.44/lb, while larger birds (over 3.5 lbs) slipped $0.01 to $1.23/lb.

White meat prices continued to soften. Boneless, skinless breasts declined $0.04 to $1.86/lb, and tenderloins held steady at $2.66/lb. Breasts are now down 22% month-over-month but remain 6% higher than a year ago.

Wings were the standout again, climbing $0.08 to $1.62/lb. They’re up 28% month-over-month, though still down 38% from last year and 17% below the five-year average. Drumsticks were unchanged at $0.57/lb.

In the thigh meat category, boneless/skinless thighs dropped $0.09 to $2.02/lb, while bone-in thighs remained flat at $0.88/lb. Despite the recent decline, boneless/skinless thighs are still up 10% year-over-year and 18% above the five-year average.

The turkey market saw notable gains. Boneless turkey breasts rose nearly 5%, and whole bone-in turkeys jumped 10% week-over-week. In the egg market, the USDA’s large eggshell index surged 10.8% from the previous week.

Looking ahead, the chicken market is entering its typical seasonal slowdown, now complicated by new tariff concerns that could impact export demand in August. Still, white meat demand is expected to hold steady due to its affordability. Prices, however, are likely to remain under pressure until promotional activity picks up again in the fall.

Pork:

Lean hog prices moved higher last week, with the August CME futures contract rising 2.4% to $108.20 per hundredweight. Most other contract months also posted gains of 1–2%. In the cash market, spot hogs increased 1% to $108.60/cwt by Thursday evening.

Hog harvest volumes were slightly lower, totaling 2.34 million head—down 1.3% from the same week last year. Total pork production reached 495 million pounds. Weekly international pork sales held steady at 568 loads, according to USDA data.

The pork cutout rose 1% week-over-week to $117.54/cwt, driven by stronger prices in the belly and ham segments, which helped offset declines in other primals.

Breaking down the primals:

• The loin primal fell 3% to $98.48/cwt. Boneless pork loins dropped $0.05 to $1.34/lb, baby back ribs declined $0.15 to $2.84/lb, and tenderloins were down $0.08 to $1.90/lb.
• The pork butt primal slipped 4% to $117.97/cwt. Bone-in butts were down $0.05 to $1.23/lb, and boneless butts fell $0.04 to $1.56/lb. Despite the price drop, export sales for pork butts rose to 6.9 million pounds.
• The rib primal declined 5% to $142.92/cwt, with medium spareribs priced at $1.71/lb.
• The belly primal gained 2% to $192.97/cwt. The derind 13/17 belly subprimal increased $0.04 to $2.31/lb.
• In the trim market, 42% trim rose $0.02 to $1.33/lb, while 72% trim slipped $0.05 to $1.36/lb.
• The ham primal was the strongest performer, jumping 7% to $115.51/cwt.

Looking ahead, lean hog prices appear to be trending upward, though the pork cutout may remain mixed in the near term. While overall pork prices are expected to soften next month, ham values are likely to rise as processors prepare for holiday demand. However, the market remains uncertain due to shifting tariff policies and unstable international trade conditions—particularly with China suspending exemptions on certain agricultural imports.

Bacon:

Pork Bellies Continue Climbing on Strong Demand and Tight Supply

The U.S. pork belly market extended its rally this week, driven by limited hog availability and low cold storage inventories. USDA data showed the primal pork belly value averaging $191.43/cwt, up $11.73 from the previous week. The 9–13 lb derind belly market also moved higher, averaging $233.09/cwt, a $2.85 increase week-over-week.

Prices trended upward through midweek before easing slightly, continuing a broader rally that began in early June. Current values are now more than 35% higher than this time last year, highlighting the strength of this seasonal run.

On the supply side, weekly federally inspected hog harvests remain below 2024 levels, and carcass weights are trending lighter—both signs of a well-cleared market. Cold storage inventories for pork bellies are also significantly lower year-over-year, limiting processor flexibility and increasing reliance on fresh product.

Looking ahead, pork belly prices are expected to stay firm through late July and into early August. While some price relief may come as hog availability improves and seasonal demand begins to ease, tight harvest levels could delay any meaningful correction. A modest pullback is possible in August, with more noticeable softening likely by September as the market transitions out of its seasonal peak.