Beef, Poultry & Pork Market Update

Beef

Cattle markets were mixed last week as cash trade occurred later in the week and packer margins remained under pressure. Weekly cattle slaughter declined from the prior week and continues to track well below year‑ago levels, reinforcing the tight supply backdrop that has defined the beef complex through the first quarter. Beef production followed suit, posting a modest week‑over‑week pullback while remaining materially lower than the same period last year. Dressed weights remain elevated versus year‑ago levels, partially offsetting reduced head counts but not enough to materially ease supply constraints.

Wholesale beef markets softened across most middle meats and end cuts this week following several weeks of strength. Ribeyes, striploins, and tenderloins all moved lower, while chucks and rounds experienced additional pressure as buyers stepped back amid seasonal demand resistance. Thin meats were mixed, with flanks holding steady while skirts and select plate items showed modest strength. Ground beef markets weakened further, reflecting ample trim availability and softer near‑term demand. Despite the week’s pullback, overall beef fundamentals remain historically tight, and volatility is expected to persist as packers continue to manage throughput and buyers adjust to elevated replacement costs.

Poultry

Chicken production continues to run above year‑ago levels, though recent weekly data suggests output growth has begun to stabilize. Broiler slaughter was slightly lower week over week and only marginally higher than the same week last year, signaling some moderation as the industry moves deeper into spring. Retail feature activity remained active but showed signs of fatigue following the Easter demand window.

Chicken markets were mixed. Breast meat softened after recent gains, while tenderloins and boneless thigh meat also moved lower. Leg quarters and dark meat items were mixed to slightly weaker, reflecting ample supply and limited urgency from buyers. Wings remain under pressure as large inventories and steady production cap upside ahead of peak grilling season. Looking forward, chicken is expected to remain competitively priced versus beef and pork, though sustained production levels may limit meaningful near‑term recovery across most parts.

Pork

The hog market traded defensively last week as the post‑holiday lull weighed on buyer activity. Hog slaughter declined sharply on a week‑over‑week basis and also ran below year‑ago levels, contributing to reduced pork production for the week. Despite lower production, the USDA pork cutout posted only limited improvement, with gains concentrated in select primals.

Ribs and hams provided support, while bellies softened modestly following several weeks of strength. Loins and butts were under pressure as buyers remained cautious and feature demand slowed. Back ribs continue to trade at a historically wide premium to St. Louis ribs, a spread that may narrow as seasonal grilling demand begins to develop. Longer term, recent USDA data continues to suggest tightening supply prospects later in the year, though near‑term availability remains adequate due to productivity gains and heavier weights.

Bacon

The belly and bacon complex worked through another volatile but constructive week. While day‑to‑day pricing showed sharp swings, weekly movement reflected resilience rather than breakdown, with the market continuing to hold structure despite seasonally softer April conditions. Buyers remain cautious, yet participation has not meaningfully declined, and selling pressure has been limited.

Cold storage inventories remain well below year‑ago levels, reducing the market’s ability to absorb renewed demand once buying accelerates. Heavy hog weights and elevated slaughter continue to support near‑term availability, but the industry’s reliance on efficiency rather than herd expansion leaves little margin for error later in the quarter. As April progresses, attention is shifting from near‑term softness toward late‑Q2 and early‑Q3 risk, particularly if grilling demand and foodservice traffic begin to improve. Current conditions support a stable tone near term, with upside risk building into the early summer window.