Beef, Poultry & Pork Market Update

Beef

Beef production remains below prior-year levels as cattle slaughter continues to track lower year-to-date, keeping overall supplies tight. While slaughter is expected to move closer to year-ago levels through the fall, the market continues to work through limited cattle availability. The Choice cutout moved higher during the week, supported by strength in premium middle meats and select end cuts. Rib markets were mixed, with heavy ribeyes improving while lighter ribeyes softened. Loin markets were also mixed as strip loins strengthened while top sirloins and flap meat moved lower, though tenderloins posted gains. Chuck markets showed mixed performance, with chuck rolls improving while clod items and chuck flaps moved lower. Round values were generally weaker as buyers remained cautious on end meats. Thin meats showed pockets of strength, led by briskets, flanks, and short ribs. Ground beef markets softened as lower trim availability was offset by demand resistance at current market levels. Near-term beef fundamentals remain supportive due to tight cattle supplies, but mixed wholesale demand continues to create significant variation between individual cuts.

Poultry

Chicken slaughter and production were affected by the holiday schedule, but year-to-date production remains above last year. Producers are showing signs of slowing supply growth as higher feed costs pressure margins. Broiler supplies remain adequate, and the market continues to offer favorable buying opportunities. Demand has not been strong enough to absorb supply consistently across the complex. Boneless skinless breasts moved lower, while tenders held steady. Wings continued lower. Dark meat was mixed, with drumsticks and leg quarters down while bone-in and boneless thighs moved up. Whole birds also moved lower. Producer efforts to slow supply growth may provide support as the market moves toward the winter demand period. The overall poultry market remains mixed, with plentiful supply keeping pressure on several key foodservice cuts.

Pork

Pork production moved lower during the holiday week, while year-to-date output remains close to last year. Reduced slaughter did not prevent the pork cutout from moving lower as belly weakness weighed on the complex. Bellies, ribs, loins, and butts moved down, while hams, picnics, and trim moved up. Domestic demand remains uneven, and export growth has not been strong enough to offset the softer domestic market. Pork continues to offer favorable value compared with elevated beef markets. Both fat and lean trim moved higher this week, although the seasonal outlook points toward additional weakness later this fall. The near-term pork market should remain mixed, with increasing seasonal production likely to pressure the broader complex.

Bacon

Bellies moved sharply lower this week, resuming the seasonal correction following the Labor Day demand period. Supply is expected to increase as hog slaughter moves into the heavier fall production schedule. Seasonal bacon demand is easing, leaving buyers with less urgency to extend coverage. The broader outlook remains lower as additional pork production becomes available and belly demand transitions away from summer features. Short-lived support remains possible, but the overall direction for the next one to two weeks is lower.