Beef, Poultry & Pork Market Update

Beef:

The CME JUN cattle contract, the nearest on the board, declined 1.5 percent last week to $224.30 per hundredweight (cwt), as fund managers and speculators took profits following recent gains. Other futures contracts also traded about 1 percent lower. Spot and cash cattle prices followed suit, slipping to $235/cwt as of Thursday night’s close.

Beef cattle harvest volumes fell 4.1 percent week-over-week to 558,000 head and were down 9.3 percent compared to the same week last year. Steer carcass weights dropped by 2 pounds to 1,423 pounds, though they remain 33 pounds heavier than a year ago. As a result, beef production declined to 484.9 million pounds.

Despite the lower harvest and production, boxed beef values surged. The choice cutout rose 4 percent to $393.79/cwt, and the select cutout increased 3 percent to $374.59/cwt, with strength reported across all primal categories. Within the choice cutout, the bone-in export rib fell $0.27 to $9.90 per pound, and the boneless ribeye dropped $0.39 to $11.57 per pound. The loin complex was mixed: choice shortloins declined $0.69 to $10.09 per pound, while striploins rose $0.31 to $11.96 per pound. Top sirloins gained $0.41 to $7.59 per pound, and tenderloins increased $0.47 to $14.96 per pound. Choice top sirloins are now up more than 10 percent month-to-date, reaching new all-time highs.

End cuts were stronger across the board. Chuck rolls rose $0.35 to $4.64 per pound, and shoulder clods increased $0.42 to $4.47 per pound. In the round complex, inside rounds climbed $0.33 to $4.31 per pound, and bottom round flats rose $0.23 to $4.22 per pound.

The ground beef and trim markets also saw sharp gains. Ground beef 81% rose $0.20 to $3.84 per pound. In the trim segment, 50% trim jumped $0.50 to $2.00 per pound, setting a new all-time high, while 90% lean trim increased $0.06 to $3.96 per pound.

Looking ahead, while live cattle prices softened slightly last week, the beef cutout continues to climb. Packers may attempt to reduce harvest volumes to ease cash cattle prices, but beef prices are still expected to rise further, with the seasonal peak likely arriving after the July 4th holiday.

Poultry:

The USDA reported that the young chicken harvest totaled 168.8 million head for the week ending June 14, 2025, marking a 1.4 percent increase compared to the same week last year. The average bird weight rose to 6.65 pounds, up from 6.53 pounds a year ago. This resulted in a 3.5 percent year-over-year increase in total production, reaching 854 million pounds.

Broiler growers placed 193.7 million chicks for meat production during the same week, up 1 percent from the previous year. Hatchability remained steady at 79.1 percent.

Wholesale chicken prices were slightly lower overall, though tenderloins and wings posted modest gains. Retail advertising activity declined by 17 percent week-over-week, with chicken tenderloins seeing the largest drop in promotional volume.

In terms of pricing, the National Composite whole birds and WOGs were unchanged at $1.37 per pound. In the foodservice segment, 2.5–3.5 lb WOGs rose $0.01 to $1.37 per pound, 2.5dn WOGs held steady at $1.45 per pound, and 3.5up WOGs increased $0.02 to $1.27 per pound.

The white meat segment was mixed. Boneless/skinless breasts declined $0.04 to $2.65 per pound, while tenderloins rose $0.06 to $2.59 per pound. Breasts are now down 3 percent month-over-month but remain 53 percent higher year-over-year. Chicken wings increased $0.02 to $1.21 per pound, and drumsticks rose $0.04 to $0.55 per pound. Wings are still down 52 percent year-over-year and 35 percent below the five-year average. Boneless/skinless thigh meat and bone-in thighs were both flat at $2.45 and $0.88 per pound, respectively. B/S thigh meat remains up 31 percent year-over-year and 36 percent above the five-year average.

The turkey segment was mixed, with turkey breasts rising 6 percent week-over-week. In the egg market, the USDA’s large eggshell index increased 1 percent week-over-week but remains 20 percent lower month-over-month.

Looking ahead, the chicken market is expected to follow its typical seasonal decline. However, demand for white meat is projected to remain steady due to its affordability, supported by limited harvest volumes and consistent demand from both retail and foodservice sectors as summer progresses.

Pork:

Lean hog futures and cash prices made strong gains last week. The July CME contract, which is the front-month, climbed 3% to $112.20 per hundredweight. Most other contract months also saw increases of 1% to 2%. On the cash side, spot hogs rose 6%, ending Thursday at $104.97/cwt.

The weekly hog harvest reached 2.38 million head, which is up 1.4% from the previous week but flat compared to the same time last year. Pork production also moved higher, totaling 513 million pounds. The USDA reported a notable jump in international pork sales, with 672 loads sold—200 more than the week before.

Pork cutout values continued their upward trend, rising 4% week-over-week to $118.98/cwt and nearly 19% month-over-month. Within the primals, the loin primal increased 2% to $98.23/cwt. Boneless pork loins held steady at $1.38/lb, while loin/baby back ribs edged up by $0.17 to $3.17/lb. Tenderloins dipped slightly to $1.75/lb.

The pork butt primal gained 4%, reaching $147.36/cwt. Bone-in subprimals ticked up to $1.71/lb, and boneless pork butts rose to $1.84/lb. Export demand for pork butts was especially strong, with 8.2 million pounds sold last week.

Rib primals also saw a 2% increase, closing at $170.07/cwt, and medium spareribs rose by $0.06 to $1.84/lb. The belly and trim segments surged as well. The belly primal jumped 4% to $186.03/cwt, with the derind 13/17 belly subprimal up $0.08 to $2.25/lb. In trims, 42% trim increased by $0.11 to $1.05/lb, while 72% trim remained flat at $1.28/lb. The ham primal was up 4% to $111.74/cwt.

Looking ahead, lean hog prices are expected to stay elevated through the July 4th holiday. Despite some volatility in international sales, strong demand from both retail and foodservice channels is helping to push pork cutout values higher—and that momentum looks likely to continue.

Bacon:

The belly complex continued its strong upward momentum this week, with both the USDA PRIMAL and USDA 9/13 DERIND markets posting solid gains across the 5-day average. This marks roughly five consecutive weeks of sustained increases, with the rally beginning earlier than initially forecasted. The market averaged just under 185 for USDA PRIMAL and 230 for USDA 9/13 DERIND, up from last week’s averages of 170 and 215, respectively. Daily trading remained volatile, with the highest single-day close reaching 187.58 (PRIMAL) and 237.52 (DERIND), signaling that the market still has strength behind it.

Despite this momentum, many in the industry anticipate a potential slowdown or modest pullback over the next four weeks. The consensus outlook suggests that while the market may hold its current strength in the near term, significant upward movement is unlikely until the second half of July and into August. In the short term, performance is expected to be mixed, with limited upside or downside risk.

Looking further ahead, the belly market is projected to maintain general strength through early August. However, by mid-August, the market is expected to face significant downward pressure. A rapid correction is anticipated from late August through early September, with values potentially retreating to early Q2 lows—around 130 for USDA PRIMAL and 160 for USDA 9/13 DERIND. For now, the market remains elevated, supported by tightening supply and seasonal demand, but traders should be prepared for volatility and a possible shift in direction as summer progresses.