Beef, Poultry & Pork Market Update

Beef

The cattle markets were mixed last week with the CME DEC cattle contract, the nearest on the board, down 1 percent to $228.42/cwt and most of the other contracts lower by 1 percent. Spot/cash cattle traded up by $5 at $230/cwt as of Thursday night’s close. Steer carcass weights were higher by 3# at 1,463 LBS but are now 34# heavier than last year. Beef production was 532 million pounds, which was flat y/y. Looking at the chart, the cattle harvest was 596,000 head, which was lower by 2.2 percent compared to the same week last year. As of Thursday night's close, the choice and select beef cutouts were mixed. The choice beef cutout was slightly lower to $357.28/cwt, while select beef cutout was slightly higher to $343.97/cwt.

Breaking out the choice cutout, the bone-in export rib was down $0.24 to $12.98/lb, and the boneless HVY ribeye was lower by $0.12 to $13.65/lb. The loin complex was mixed last week. Choice shortloins were up $0.01 to $7.75/lb, and the choice striploins were lower by $0.30 to $8.91/lb. Choice top sirloins were higher by $0.22 to $5.28/lb. Choice tenderloins were lower by $1.34 to $16.75/lb.

The end cuts (chucks and rounds) were higher across the segments. In the chuck segment, chuck rolls were up $0.54 at $5.04/lb, and shoulder clods were higher by $0.10 to $3.57/lb last week. In the round complex, insides rounds were higher by $0.32 to $3.81/lb, and bottom round flats were lower by $0.42 to $3.74/lb. The ground beef and trim markets were flat to lower.

Ground beef 81% was up $0.03 to $3.39/lb. Within the trim segment, 50% trim was down $0.08 to $1.37/lb while 90% lean trim was down $0.02 to $3.92/lb. Looking ahead, the larger-than expected recent harvest, driven by packers' need to fulfill holiday orders for ribs and tenderloins, has pressured striploin prices lower. As expected, end cuts are trending higher as retailers stock up for January promotions.

Overall, the beef cutout should remain range-bound through the end of the year.

Poultry

USDA reported a young chicken harvest of 173.3 million head for the holiday week, up 3.1 percent compared to the same week last year. Average bird weight increased to 6.64 pounds, higher than last year’s 6.53 pounds. Total production reached 874.8 million pounds, which is 4.8 percent above year-ago levels. Retail chicken advertising activity declined 11.5 percent week-over-week.

Whole bird prices moved higher. National Composite WOGs rose three cents to $1.13 per pound. In foodservice, WOGs weighing 2.5 to 3.5 pounds increased four cents to $1.09 per pound, lighter birds under 2.5 pounds gained two cents to $1.41 per pound, and heavier birds over 3.5 pounds climbed six cents to $0.97 per pound. White meat prices were slightly weaker. Boneless, skinless breasts slipped one cent to $1.15 per pound. Breasts are up just 1 percent month-over-month but remain down 22 percent year-over-year.

Chicken tenderloins fell one cent to $1.39 per pound, flat month-over-month and down 16 percent year-to-date. Dark meat trends were mixed. Chicken wings held steady at $0.98 per pound, while drumsticks rose four cents to $0.54 per pound. Wings are down 4.5 percent month-over-month and 48 percent year-over-year. Boneless, skinless thigh meat was unchanged at $1.23 per pound, and bone-in thighs remained at $0.60 per pound. Boneless thigh meat is flat month-over-month, down 22 percent year-over-year, but still 9 percent above the five-year average.

In the turkey segment, boneless turkey breasts were unchanged week-over-week but remain up 255 percent year-to-date. Whole bone-in turkeys increased 4 percent for the week and are 29 percent higher than last year.

Egg prices moved lower. The USDA large eggshell index dropped 18 percent week-over-week and 15 percent month-over-month. With flock recovery following late-2024 HPAI outbreaks, shell egg prices are now 49 percent below year-ago levels. Looking ahead, wholesale chicken prices are expected to remain relatively stable through December. Prices have already moderated significantly from summer peaks, providing relief after earlier volatility tied to high feed costs and production challenges.

Pork

Hog markets were mixed last week. The February CME hog futures contract held steady at $84.12 per hundredweight, while most other contract months gained less than 1 percent. Cash hog prices moved higher, up 1.7 percent to $83.30 per hundredweight as of Thursday’s close, though they remain 4 percent lower for the month. Hog harvest totaled 2.72 million head, up 6.5 percent compared to last year, and USDA reported 843 loads in international sales for the week.

The pork cutout finished slightly lower, down 1 percent to $97.43 per hundredweight, with mixed performance across primals. The loin primal rose 4 percent to $89.06 per hundredweight, boneless pork loins increased seven cents to $1.39 per pound, loin/baby back ribs slipped three cents to $2.54 per pound, and pork tenderloins were unchanged at $1.79 per pound.

The pork butt primal climbed 2 percent to $114.62 per hundredweight, bone-in butts gained seven cents to $1.33 per pound, and boneless butts rose six cents to $1.43 per pound, supported by domestic buying despite limited export activity of just 40 loads.

The rib primal advanced 5 percent to $162.20 per hundredweight, with medium spareribs up seven cents to $1.77 per pound. In contrast, the belly primal fell sharply by 9 percent to $118.57 per hundredweight, and derinded 13/17 bellies dropped twelve cents to $1.46 per pound.

Trim prices weakened, with 42 percent trim down twelve cents to $0.44 per pound and 72 percent trim lower by four cents to $0.94 per pound. The ham primal was down 3 percent to $97.96 per hundredweight.

Looking ahead, international sales softened last week, but strong domestic demand lifted most subprimals as buyers secured inventory for holiday needs and replenished stocks. Belly and trim markets remain under pressure, pulling the overall cutout slightly lower.

Bacon

USDA 9–13 derind bellies averaged $161.89 per hundredweight for the five-day pricing week, down $12.27 or 7 percent from the prior week. Daily closes ranged from $156.72 to $167.17, and further softening is possible through month-end as holiday schedules approach.

At the primal level, bellies averaged $127.80 per hundredweight, up $1.27 or 1 percent week-over-week. This divergence between weaker boxed derind values and firmer primal pricing likely reflects packer product flow management rather than a broad decline in belly value. Belly fundamentals remain stable, and the adjustment in 9–13s brings ratios back in line with historical norms. Mild downward risk is possible over the next one to two weeks, but any weakness should be limited before values strengthen in early January.

The broader pork complex supported the week’s tone, with the cutout climbing into the mid-$97 range on stronger hams, firmer butts and ribs, and continued strength in 72 percent trim. December slaughter volumes remain heavy, typical for this time of year, keeping supply comfortable even as holiday schedules reduce hours.

For bacon buyers, disciplined near-term coverage is advised, with attention on early-January freezer data and production plans.