Beef, Poultry & Pork Market Update

Beef

Beef production remains tightly managed as packers continue to restrict output in response to elevated cattle costs. Weekly production edged slightly higher but remains well below last year, and year‑to‑date slaughter continues to run materially lower. Cash cattle traded mostly steady at record levels, offering little relief to the boxed beef market. Despite ongoing supply constraints, wholesale values were mixed with a minor softer tone, particularly in chucks and ribs, while briskets, flanks, and plate items showed better resistance. Packers remain under margin pressure, and until cattle prices ease meaningfully, production discipline is likely to persist, helping support the market floor.

Poultry

Chicken production eased slightly week over week but remains higher year over year, keeping overall supply manageable. The market tone was mixed, with breasts and wings showing some softness while tenders and boneless skinless thighs held steady. Feature activity has begun to shift toward beef despite chicken continuing to offer relative value at the wholesale level. Looking ahead, production risk leans higher, as broiler egg‑set data suggests upcoming output may exceed current forecasts. That backdrop limits upside potential as the market moves into early summer, with most chicken items expected to trade within a controlled range rather than break higher.

Pork

Pork production increased week over week and continues to run above last year, keeping pressure on certain cuts. The cutout showed a mixed profile, with bellies and picnics weighing on the composite while hams and ribs provided support. Seasonal softness remains a feature of the early spring pork complex, particularly in bellies, where post‑holiday demand slowed and volume flow increased. While near‑term sentiment softened, the broader setup remains constructive as the market approaches the late‑spring and summer demand window. The balance between rising production and expected seasonal demand will determine the next directional move.

Bacon

The belly market reversed course this week as buying interest slowed following the holiday period and traded volume remained exceptionally thin. Late‑week liquidation pulled values lower after testing higher levels earlier in the week, reinforcing the volatility created by light participation. The recent pullback appears to be driven more by timing and demand hesitation than a change in underlying fundamentals. Seasonal indicators remain supportive as the industry approaches grilling season, suggesting current softness may present a short‑term opportunity rather than a sustained shift in trend.