Beef, Poultry & Pork Market Update

Beef:

Last week, the August live cattle futures contract on the CME climbed 2%, finishing at $223.67 per hundredweight. Other contracts followed suit, rising between 1% and 2%. In the cash market, cattle were trading as high as $236/cwt by Thursday evening.

On the supply side, the cattle harvest came in at 568,000 head, which is about 6% lower than the same week last year. Steer carcass weights dipped slightly by one pound to 1,411 lbs, though they’re still 29 lbs heavier than they were a year ago. Total beef production for the week reached 490 million pounds.

When it comes to beef pricing, both the Choice and Select cutouts were down by Thursday night. The Choice cutout dropped 3% to $373.28/cwt, and the Select cutout fell 5% to $353.84/cwt. Interestingly, the rib primal bucked the trend and actually moved higher.

Digging into the subprimal details, the bone-in export rib increased by $0.38 to $9.12/lb, and the boneless ribeye rose $0.48 to $10.98/lb. However, the loin complex didn’t fare as well. Shortloins were down $0.91 to $8.41/lb, striploins slipped $0.16 to $9.79/lb, top sirloins dropped $0.41 to $6.84/lb, and tenderloins fell $0.63 to $14.67/lb.

End cuts like chucks and rounds also saw declines. Chuck rolls and shoulder clods both landed at $4.06/lb, down $0.39 and $0.28 respectively. Inside rounds dropped $0.16 to $4.27/lb, and bottom round flats were off by $0.22 to $3.92/lb.

The ground beef and trim markets were mixed. 81% lean ground beef edged up $0.02 to $3.79/lb. In the trim category, 50% trim fell $0.13 to $2.55/lb, while 90% lean trim nudged up $0.02 to $4.19/lb.

Looking ahead, the live cattle market appears to be on an upward trajectory. But with wholesale beef and subprimal values starting to soften after the holiday period, packers may find it tough to cover their costs. To manage margins, they’re likely to scale back harvest volumes in hopes of easing cash cattle prices—especially since beef prices are still expected to trend lower.

Poultry:

During the holiday-shortened week, the USDA reported that 143.6 million young chickens were harvested—about the same as this time last year. However, the average bird weight ticked up slightly to 6.44 pounds, compared to 6.36 pounds a year ago. That small increase in size helped push total production up 2% year-over-year, reaching 702.7 million pounds.

Looking at placements, U.S. broiler growers put 194 million chicks into the meat production pipeline for the week ending July 12, 2025. That’s a 2% increase from last year. Hatchability also improved a bit, rising 0.2 points to 79.4%.

On the pricing side, wholesale chicken prices were generally lower last week, though wings continued their upward streak for the seventh week in a row. Retail ads for chicken were down 2% week-over-week, reflecting the seasonal slowdown.

Breaking it down by category: whole birds and WOGs (with or without giblets) slipped by a penny to $1.34 per pound. In foodservice, the popular 2.5 to 3.5-pound WOGs dropped $0.03 to $1.34/lb, while smaller birds (under 2.5 lbs) were down $0.02 to $1.43/lb. Larger birds (over 3.5 lbs) also fell by $0.02 to $1.24/lb.

White meat prices softened as well. Boneless, skinless breasts dropped another $0.06 to $1.89/lb, and tenderloins edged down $0.01 to $2.66/lb. While breasts are down 28% month-over-month, they’re still up 8.5% compared to last year.

Wings were the standout again, climbing $0.07 to $1.54/lb. That puts them up 28% for the month, though they’re still down 41% from a year ago and 20% below the five-year average. Drumsticks held steady at $0.57/lb.

In the thigh meat category, boneless/skinless thighs fell $0.10 to $2.11/lb, while bone-in thighs stayed flat at $0.88/lb. Even with the recent dip, boneless/skinless thighs are still up 14% year-over-year and 22% above the five-year average.

The turkey market was mixed—turkey breasts dropped nearly 5%, but whole turkeys rose 2% week-over-week. Meanwhile, the USDA’s large eggshell index climbed 4% from the previous week.

Looking ahead, the chicken market is experiencing its usual seasonal dip, now compounded by new tariff issues that could put a damper on export demand. Still, white meat should remain in demand thanks to its affordability. That said, prices are likely to keep trending lower until fall promotions kick in.

Pork:

Last week, both CME hog futures and cash lean hog prices were under pressure. The August futures contract held steady at $105.82 per hundredweight, but most other contract months slipped by 1–2%. Spot hogs were also flat, closing at $107.20/cwt on Thursday.

Harvest numbers were unchanged from the same week last year, with 2.37 million hogs processed. Pork production totaled 504 million pounds. On the export front, USDA reported a bump in international sales, reaching 568 loads.

Despite the flat pricing in futures and cash markets, the pork cutout moved up 2% week-over-week to $116.32/cwt. Within the primals, the loin segment gained 2%, landing at $101.05/cwt. Boneless pork loins edged up $0.03 to $1.39/lb, while baby back ribs stayed flat at $3.00/lb. Tenderloins saw a modest increase of $0.07, bringing them to $1.98/lb.

The pork butt primal didn’t fare as well—it dropped 3% to $122.18/cwt. Bone-in pork butts were down $0.08 to $1.28/lb, and boneless butts slipped $0.03 to $1.60/lb. Export sales for pork butts also declined, totaling just 465,000 pounds last week.

Ribs were softer too, with the rib primal falling 2% to $149.48/cwt and medium spareribs priced at $1.72/lb. On the other hand, bellies and trim products showed strength. The belly primal rose 2% to $188.37/cwt, and the derind 13/17 belly increased $0.03 to $2.27/lb. Trim prices were also up—42% trim gained $0.16 to $1.31/lb, and 72% trim rose $0.07 to $1.41/lb.

Hams were the standout, climbing 4% to $107.24/cwt.

Looking ahead, lean hog prices are expected to trend slightly lower, and the pork cutout may be mixed in the short term. While overall pork prices could soften next month, hams are likely to strengthen as buyers prepare for year-end holiday demand. That said, the market remains uncertain due to shifting tariff policies and unpredictable international sales.

Bacon:

Pork bellies are showing signs of renewed strength this week, even as some of last week’s post-holiday volatility continues to linger. According to USDA data, 9–13 lb derind bellies are averaging around $230 per hundredweight—just a touch lower than last week’s $233—while primal bellies have edged up slightly to about $180/cwt.

While the week-over-week changes are modest, the overall trend suggests upward momentum is building. Prices remain elevated compared to last year, and the outlook points to continued gains over the next three to four weeks. This is largely due to seasonal dynamics: processors are facing tight supplies as production stays light, even though harvest levels have bounced back from the July 4th holiday slowdown. At the same time, demand is peaking for summer, which adds more pressure to the market.

In short, pork bellies are rebounding and signaling strength through July, but a downturn may be on the horizon once seasonal demand fades and supply stabilizes.