Beef, Poultry & Pork Market Update

Beef

Cattle markets were mixed last week. The December CME live cattle futures contract held steady at $219.00 per hundredweight, while most other contract months gained about 1 percent. Cash cattle prices were unchanged at $230 per hundredweight as of Thursday evening.

Weekly cattle harvest totaled 555,000 head, down 1 percent from the previous week and 12 percent below the same week last year. Boxed beef values were also mixed. The Choice cutout slipped 1 percent to $373.57 per hundredweight, while the Select cutout fell 2 percent to $355.03 per hundredweight.

Within the Choice rib complex, the bone-in export rib rose twenty-one cents to $12.87 per pound, and the boneless heavy ribeye increased twenty-four cents to $14.26 per pound. The loin complex was mostly higher. Choice shortloins climbed forty-five cents to $8.25 per pound, striploins held steady at $9.73 per pound, and top sirloins edged up six cents to $5.38 per pound. Choice tenderloins gained fifty cents to reach $20.00 per pound.

End cuts were weaker across the board. Chuck rolls dropped twenty-three cents to $4.29 per pound, and shoulder clods fell eleven cents to $3.68 per pound. Inside rounds declined fifteen cents to $3.73 per pound, and bottom round flats were down fourteen cents to $3.72 per pound.

Ground beef and trim markets were flat to lower. Ground beef 81 percent slipped twelve cents to $3.50 per pound. In the trim segment, 50 percent trim fell five cents to $1.77 per pound, while 90 percent lean trim held steady at $4.04 per pound.

Looking ahead, recent declines in cattle prices appear to be moderating. However, with holiday beef buying slowing and attention shifting to Thanksgiving turkey demand, the beef cutout is expected to trend lower next week.

Poultry

USDA reported a young chicken harvest of 172.8 million head for the week, slightly higher than the previous week but unchanged compared to the same week last year. Average bird weight dropped sharply to 6.45 pounds, down from 6.62 pounds a year ago. Total production reached 846 million pounds, which is 4 percent lower week-over-week and 2.5 percent below last year.

Retail chicken advertising activity increased 3 percent compared to the prior week. Whole bird prices were steady overall. National Composite WOGs held at $1.04 per pound. In foodservice, WOGs weighing 2.5 to 3.5 pounds slipped one cent to $0.98 per pound, lighter birds under 2.5 pounds were unchanged at $1.37 per pound, and heavier birds over 3.5 pounds fell one cent to $0.85 per pound.

White meat prices were mixed. Boneless, skinless breasts edged up one cent to $1.15 per pound and are now flat month-over-month but still down 23 percent year-over-year. Chicken tenderloins remained at $1.40 per pound, down 4 percent for the month and 17 percent year-to-date.

Dark meat trends were also mixed. Chicken wings rose one cent to $1.07 per pound, and drumsticks gained one cent to $0.47 per pound. Wings are down 3 percent month-over-month and 43 percent year-over-year. Boneless, skinless thigh meat fell four cents to $1.23 per pound, while bone-in thighs slipped one cent to $0.60 per pound. Boneless thigh meat remains down 23 percent month-over-month and 25 percent year-over-year.

In the turkey segment, boneless turkey breasts were unchanged week-over-week but remain up 250 percent year-to-date. Whole bone-in turkeys increased 1 percent for the week and are 38 percent higher than last year.

Egg prices strengthened as highly pathogenic avian influenza cases continued to rise. The USDA large eggshell index climbed 14 percent week-over-week and 37 percent month-over-month, though it remains 55 percent lower year-to-date.

Looking ahead, chicken prices appear to be stabilizing and showing early signs of upward movement. Lower bird weights and a slower harvest pace are reducing overall supply, supporting firm basis levels. Turkey prices remain strong for now, but demand is expected to ease significantly after Thanksgiving.

Pork

Lean hog prices moved lower across both futures and cash markets last week. The December CME hog futures contract fell 1 percent to $78 per hundredweight, and most other contract months were down by 1 to 2 percent. Cash hogs declined 2 percent to $89.10 per hundredweight as of Thursday’s close and are now 10 percent lower for the month.

Hog harvest totaled 2.64 million head, up 2 percent from the previous week and 2 percent higher than the same week last year. USDA reported a sharp increase in export activity, with 1,270 loads sold—the highest in seven months. Despite this surge, the pork market weakened as all primals posted declines. The pork cutout dropped 4 percent to $95.25 per hundredweight, led by losses in the loin and picnic primals.

The loin primal fell 6 percent to $83.67 per hundredweight. Boneless pork loins decreased seven cents to $1.27 per pound, and loin/baby back ribs slipped ten cents to $2.48 per pound. Pork tenderloins moved lower to $1.58 per pound.

The pork butt primal declined 5 percent to $104.47 per hundredweight. Bone-in butts fell three cents to $1.14 per pound, while boneless butts edged up three cents to $1.37 per pound, supported by strong export demand with over 460 loads shipped internationally.

The rib primal dropped 2 percent to $148.89 per hundredweight, and medium spareribs fell two cents to $1.61 per pound. The belly primal decreased 2 percent to $139.91 per hundredweight, while derinded 13/17 bellies held steady at $1.70 per pound.

Trim prices softened. Forty-two percent trim fell five cents to $0.85 per pound, and seventy-two percent trim declined eight cents to $1.04 per pound. The ham primal was down 5 percent to $86.39 per hundredweight.

Looking ahead, even with strong export sales, overall weakness in primals and the cutout suggests continued downward pressure. Lean hog prices are expected to trend lower, and no significant demand growth is anticipated in the near term.

Bacon

The pork belly market continued its seasonal decline this week, slipping another $2 to $141.60 per hundredweight—a 15 percent drop from late October highs. While bacon demand typically strengthens in early November, fundamentals such as ample slaughter, weaker cutout values, and cautious foodservice traffic are keeping the market subdued. The USDA pork cutout closed below $99 per hundredweight, down about $2 for the week, reinforcing bearish sentiment across the complex. Hog slaughter held firm at 2.633 million head, sustaining supply-side pressure and keeping packer margins strong.

Futures markets are trading below historical norms, pointing to potential recovery in Q1 as supplies tighten and bacon demand normalizes. February belly futures remain well under average levels, signaling opportunity for buyers willing to lock in forward positions. However, lean cold storage inventories add volatility and pose upside risk for early 2026 pricing.

This week’s key developments include belly prices easing to near $140 per hundredweight, the pork cutout dipping below $99, and hog slaughter maintaining strong levels. Futures suggest Q1 recovery potential, but lean cold storage stocks could amplify price swings later in the year.