Beef, Poultry & Pork Market Update

Beef

Beef markets eased slightly last week. The February live cattle futures contract slipped just over one percent to $232.37/cwt, with most other contract months also trending about one percent lower. Cash cattle held steady at $233/cwt through Thursday. Steer carcass weights climbed three pounds to 1,468 pounds and now sit twenty‑four pounds above last year. Weekly beef production totaled 503 million pounds, roughly four percent below last year’s level. Harvest numbers reached 562,000 head, a decline of about six and a half percent from a year ago.

Choice and Select cutouts both moved higher into Thursday’s close. Choice advanced two percent to $367.45/cwt, while Select rose one percent to $361.73/cwt. Within middle meats, rib values showed modest mixed movement, with export ribs slightly higher but heavy ribeyes softer. The loin complex was firmer across most items, including higher pricing on striploins, top sirloins, and steady tenderloins. Chuck and round items were mixed, with small adjustments on rolls, clods, inside rounds, and flats. Ground beef and trim showed a blend of higher and lower moves depending on lean point.

Looking ahead, cattle harvest has been running five to six percent below year‑ago levels, and current packer slowdowns could push next week’s figures to double‑digit declines. Reduced operating schedules may add a layer of support to boxed beef values even as demand typically softens moving into February.

Poultry

Young chicken harvest for the holiday week totaled 176.3 million head, up twelve percent from last year. Average bird weights reached 6.68 pounds, slightly below the 6.70‑pound level seen last year but above recent weeks. Production reached 881 million pounds, also up twelve percent from a year ago. Retail chicken advertising activity jumped eighteen percent week over week.

Whole‑bird markets were steady to slightly higher across most categories. Composite WOG values improved modestly, while foodservice WOG items were mostly unchanged with only minor shifts among weight ranges.

White meat saw broader strength. Boneless breasts gained seven cents to $1.26/lb and are up eight and a half percent month over month but still notably below last year. Tenderloins moved modestly higher and continue to lag year‑ago pricing. Wings ticked higher for the week and on a monthly basis, though remain far under last year’s elevated levels. Drumsticks eased slightly. Thigh meat continued to firm, supported by steady demand, with both boneless and bone‑in items showing incremental lifts.

In turkeys, boneless breasts held steady on the week but remain dramatically above year‑ago pricing, with whole bone‑in birds also flat but elevated compared to last year. Egg markets continued to decline sharply, with the USDA large shell index falling ten percent for the week, down more than fifty percent for the month and nearly ninety percent versus last year as flocks recover from 2024 HPAI losses.

Looking ahead, wholesale chicken prices remain stable to slightly higher despite heavier harvest volumes. Production remains adequate to meet ongoing demand as the sector maintains its position as a price‑competitive protein alternative.

Looking forward, poultry markets appear to be settling into a period of relative stability. Demand has remained resilient, and the gradual recovery in production capacity continues to bring balance back to the complex after the challenges of the past year.

Pork

Lean hog futures and cash markets finished stronger last week. The February futures contract rose three percent to $88.47/cwt, with most other months gaining three to four percent. Cash hogs improved 1.7 percent to $82.03/cwt as of Thursday. Weekly hog harvest of 2.62 million head matched year‑ago levels, while international sales totaled 1,000 loads.

The pork cutout moved one percent higher to $94.62/cwt, supported by broader strength across the primal complex. Loin values held mostly steady, with firmer pricing on boneless loins but slight softness in rib‑related items. Tenderloins remained unchanged. The pork butt primal advanced one percent alongside minor increases in both bone‑in and boneless butts, supported by strong export activity totaling 179 loads. Rib values were flat overall with small adjustments. Bellies strengthened, with derind items moving slightly higher. Trim markets eased, as both 42‑percent and 72‑percent trim slipped marginally. Hams were up one percent for the week.

Looking ahead, the pork cutout continues to benefit from seasonal freezer rebuilding and slightly reduced harvest levels. While retail movement remains subdued, overall demand and inventory strategy suggest a steady to slightly firmer trend into early February.

Bacon

Belly values continued their seasonal firming trend this week, with the belly primal holding in the mid‑$120s and showing early signs of traditional late‑winter upward momentum. Even though frozen belly inventories saw a month‑to‑month increase, stocks remain below last year, keeping the market sensitive to changes in harvest pace and export activity. This positioning has encouraged buyers to secure forward bacon coverage for early spring needs.

Hog supplies remain steady and sufficient. Slaughter levels have normalized following the holiday period, and cash hog prices have stabilized in the low $80s, aligning with consistent but moderate demand. Producer weights remain seasonally elevated, ensuring adequate fresh belly availability. Packer margins remain positive, encouraging plants to maintain full harvest schedules and support steady belly flow into the pipeline.

Recent national inventory data shows modest year‑over‑year growth in total hog numbers, driven by record productivity even as the breeding herd contracts. This creates reliable availability of market hogs without oversupplying the system. As a result, short‑term belly direction remains more dependent on demand—particularly for bacon—than on supply variables.

Export strength continues to add balance to domestic availability. Mexico’s ongoing record demand for U.S. pork continues to support overall carcass value, particularly in hams and other items that indirectly influence the belly market. This export pull remains an important stabilizing force as the industry transitions toward spring seasonal demand.