Beef, Poultry & Pork Market Update

Beef

Beef production held close to the prior week but remained below last year as reduced cattle slaughter continued to limit overall output. Year-to-date production remains well behind 2025 because fewer cattle have moved through the system. Fourth-quarter production is expected to improve seasonally from the third quarter, although supplies will remain below year-ago levels. This combination should provide adequate near-term availability without eliminating the longer-term supply concern. Consumer demand has moderated as historically expensive beef continues to pressure purchasing decisions. Retailers are also beginning to secure holiday inventory, which will influence buying patterns through November and December. Imported lean beef remains an important component of the grind supply picture, but production from several major exporting countries is expected to tighten. The near-term market could continue to experience uneven movement as seasonal holiday demand competes with softer overall consumption. Longer term, limited cattle availability remains the primary supply-side concern.

Poultry

Chicken producers continued to limit supply as young-chicken slaughter ran below both the previous week and last year. Production for the week ending October 24 was also below its prior-week and year-ago levels. September chicken output posted its largest monthly decline in more than three years, confirming that producers have responded to weak operating margins. Recent supplier earnings indicate that producer profitability remains under pressure, which should discourage aggressive production growth into the first quarter. Overall availability remains adequate, but the supply pipeline is no longer expanding at the pace seen earlier in the year. Consumer demand continues to favor dark meat, which has become a larger part of the domestic diet. The value distribution across the bird remains historically unusual and creates challenges for processor margins. Feed costs and producer margins will remain important indicators heading into 2027. Limited production growth should help improve balance as the industry moves through winter.

Pork

Pork production increased from the previous week and moved slightly above the comparable week last year. Year-to-date output remains close to last year despite limited hog availability. The latest hog inventory indicates fewer market hogs moving into the fall and winter slaughter periods, while productivity gains continue to partially offset the smaller breeding base. Domestic pork consumption remains the primary challenge and continues to weigh on the cutout. Export demand will remain important as processors work through seasonal production. Pork continues to offer a favorable value position compared with beef, creating selling opportunities where customers can shift menu features. Near-term supply should remain adequate, but tighter hog availability could limit production growth heading into 2027.

Bacon

Pork production increased slightly from the previous week and remained just above last year, while year-to-date output stayed close to 2025. Current slaughter levels and carcass weights are keeping fresh pork supplies readily available. Demand has not yet expanded enough to fully absorb the seasonal production flow. Pork remains competitively positioned against beef, which should support additional retail and foodservice interest. Recent producer financial results indicate that current market conditions are discouraging production growth. The latest hog inventory data also point toward tighter supplies in the coming quarters. This creates greater upside risk later in the winter, although weak consumption could delay or limit that recovery.