Beef, Poultry & Pork Market Update

Beef:

Cattle futures moved slightly higher, with the August CME contract up 1% to $227.77/cwt and cash cattle climbing to $240/cwt. Harvest volumes dropped to 549,000 head, down 2.5% week-over-week and 9% year-over-year. Steer weights held near 1,410 lbs, still 26 lbs heavier than last year. Beef production fell to 474 million pounds, down 2.6% from the prior week.

Cutout values continued to soften, with both Choice and Select down 2% to $361.32/cwt and $341.37/cwt, respectively. Rib meat remained strong, with bone-in export ribs up $0.12/lb to $9.60/lb and boneless heavy ribeyes up $0.85/lb to $11.87/lb. Loin cuts were mixed—shortloins fell $0.65/lb while striploins and tenderloins posted modest gains. End cuts showed a similar pattern, with chuck rolls and inside rounds slightly higher, while shoulder clods and bottom round flats declined.

Ground beef and trim markets were weaker. 81% lean ground beef dropped $0.09/lb to $3.40/lb. Trim values also fell, with 50% trim down $0.44/lb to $1.77/lb and 90% lean trim off $0.01/lb to $4.17/lb.

Looking ahead, the beef cutout has dropped over $30/cwt in the past month, but prices remain seasonally elevated. Rib and end cuts may firm slightly to offset weakness in other primals.

Poultry:

Chicken harvest totaled 171.9 million head, flat week-over-week but up 2% year-over-year. Heavier bird weights at 6.51 lbs pushed production to 850.6 million pounds, a 3.6% increase from last year. Chick placements were down week-over-week but still up 1% year-over-year.

Wholesale chicken prices were mixed. Boneless/skinless breasts rose $0.04/lb to $1.90/lb—their first increase in eight weeks—while tenderloins slipped $0.01/lb to $2.65/lb. Wings continued their rally, up $0.09/lb to $1.71/lb, now 25% higher month-over-month. Drumsticks and bone-in thighs were flat, while boneless/skinless thighs fell $0.03/lb to $1.99/lb.

Whole birds and WOGs declined slightly across all size categories. Retail ad activity increased nearly 11% week-over-week, signaling stronger promotional support.

Turkey prices were mixed, with boneless breasts up nearly 6% and whole bone-in turkeys down 8%. The USDA large eggshell index rose 5.4% week-over-week.

Looking ahead, the seasonal dip in chicken prices is moderating, but tariff concerns may impact exports. White meat demand should remain steady, though prices are expected to trend flat to lower until fall promotions begin.

Pork:

Lean hog futures were mixed, with the August CME contract down 1% to $107.12/cwt, while cash hogs rose 1.6% to $110.45/cwt. Harvest volumes held steady at 2.34 million head, and pork production reached 493 million pounds. Export sales dropped by 100 loads to 468.

The pork cutout fell 5% to $114.00/cwt, with most primals trending lower. Loins declined 4%, with boneless loins down $0.06/lb to $1.28/lb and baby back ribs off $0.11/lb to $2.73/lb. Tenderloins bucked the trend, rising $0.08/lb to $1.98/lb. Butts and ribs were weaker, with butts down 6% and spareribs off $0.10/lb to $1.61/lb.

Bellies softened, with the primal down 9% to $176.44/cwt and derind 13/17 bellies off $0.21/lb to $2.10/lb. Trim values were mixed - 42% trim was flat at $1.33/lb, while 72% trim slipped $0.01/lb to $1.31/lb. Hams were the only bright spot, up 3% to $118.06/cwt.

Looking ahead, cash hog prices are expected to decline in line with futures. Pork cutout values may remain mixed to lower, with a more pronounced drop likely next month due to tariff uncertainty and volatile export demand.

Bacon:

Pork bellies are in the spotlight this week as prices push into the $190s/cwt range, driven by tight hog supplies, lighter carcass weights, and a sharp drop in cold storage inventories. As of June 30, belly stocks were down nearly 28% year-over-year to just 44.1 million pounds, highlighting strong demand and limited replenishment from harvest.

Production remains constrained, with weekly slaughter underperforming and carcass weights below seasonal norms. While futures markets suggest a possible correction, August belly contracts are trading well below current spot levels—buyers are facing a short-term squeeze with elevated prices and limited availability.

Until harvest volumes improve, likely by mid-August, bacon buyers should expect continued pricing pressure and tight supply. This is a classic seasonal peak, with strong momentum but early signs of moderation ahead.