Beef, Poultry & Pork Market Update

Beef:

This week’s cattle market showed mixed performance. The October CME live cattle futures contract remained unchanged at $232.05 per hundredweight, while deferred contracts displayed some upward momentum. In contrast, cash cattle prices experienced a sharp decline, dropping $6 to settle at $234 per hundredweight by Thursday evening. Harvest numbers came in at 552,000 head, marking a 2.3 percent decrease from the previous week and a 10 percent drop compared to the same period last year. Steer carcass weights increased by five pounds to 1,422 pounds, which is now eight pounds heavier than last year. Total beef production was reported at 481 million pounds, reflecting a 9 percent year-over-year decrease.

The boxed beef market also softened. The choice cutout fell 4 percent to $371.97 per hundredweight, while the select cutout declined 2 percent to $353.45. Within the rib complex, bone-in export ribs edged down by $0.07 to $12.60 per pound, but boneless heavy ribeyes rose by $0.10 to $14.65. The loin complex was mixed, with choice shortloins increasing by $0.05 to $7.43 per pound and choice striploins up $0.03 to $8.51. However, choice top sirloins dropped $0.40 to $5.24, and choice tenderloins saw a significant decline of $1.12 to $19.15.

End cuts across the board were lower. Chuck rolls decreased by $0.82 to $4.87 per pound, and shoulder clods fell $0.18 to $3.30. In the round segment, inside rounds were down $0.17 to $4.08, and bottom round flats slipped $0.09 to $3.90. The ground beef and trim markets were mixed. Ground beef 81 percent lean dropped $0.12 to $3.48 per pound. Trim values varied, with 50 percent trim holding steady at $1.47 and 90 percent lean trim increasing by $0.04 to $4.35.

Looking ahead, the seasonal decline in choice and select cutout values is expected to continue through October. Live cattle prices may soften further but are likely to find support from reduced placements. Holiday cuts such as tenderloins and ribs, which have shown strength recently, may stabilize in the short term before regaining momentum toward the end of the year.

Poultry:

The USDA reported a weekly harvest of 174.4 million young chickens, marking an 8.2 percent increase from the previous week and a 2.4 percent rise compared to the same week last year. The average bird weight reached 6.80 pounds, up from 6.68 pounds a year ago. Total production climbed to 901 million pounds, reflecting an 8.9 percent week-over-week gain. Broiler placements for meat production totaled 195.3 million chicks for the week ending September 20, 2025, which was up slightly from the prior week and 2 percent higher year-over-year.

In the whole bird segment, national composite WOGs declined by $0.03 to $1.11 per pound. Foodservice WOGs also softened, with the high-volume 2.5 to 3.5-pound birds down $0.05 to $1.06 per pound. Smaller birds under 2.5 pounds dropped $0.02 to $1.37, while larger birds over 3.5 pounds fell $0.01 to $0.96.

The white meat category continued to weaken. Boneless, skinless breasts fell $0.23 to $1.42 per pound, and tenderloins dropped $0.19 to $1.96. Breast meat is now down 30 percent month-over-month and nearly 25 percent compared to last year. Chicken wings declined $0.17 to $1.44 per pound, while drumsticks edged up $0.03 to $0.55. Wing prices are down 17 percent month-over-month, 38 percent year-over-year, and 25 percent below the five-year average.

Thigh meat also saw modest declines. Boneless, skinless thighs slipped $0.01 to $1.89 per pound, and bone-in thighs fell $0.02 to $0.86. While boneless thigh meat is down 1 percent month-over-month and flat year-over-year, it remains 17 percent above the five-year average.

The turkey market continued its strong performance. Boneless turkey breasts rose another 4 percent week-over-week and are now up 216 percent for the year. Whole bone-in turkeys increased 16 percent week-over-week and are nearly 60 percent higher than last year.

In the egg market, the USDA’s large eggshell index dropped nearly 8 percent week-over-week and is now 20 percent lower year-over-year. Looking ahead, wholesale chicken prices—particularly for breasts and tenderloins—are expected to remain under pressure due to elevated harvest levels and production, coupled with reduced retail promotions.

Pork:

The pork market showed mixed signals last week. The October CME hog futures contract rose by 2.7 percent to $100.10 per hundredweight, with most other contract months also trending about 1 percent higher. In contrast, spot or cash hogs declined by 1 percent, closing at $104.90 per hundredweight on Thursday. Harvest volumes increased by 3.4 percent week-over-week to 2.59 million head, which is also 3 percent higher than the same week last year. Total pork production reached 545 million pounds. International demand remained strong, with USDA reporting 752 truckloads sold last week—an increase of 75 loads from the previous week.

The pork cutout value slipped by 1 percent to $110.99 per hundredweight, driven largely by weakness in the loin primal. The loin primal itself dropped 5 percent to $94.70 per hundredweight. Within the subprimals, boneless pork loins fell $0.06 to $1.33 per pound, loin and baby back ribs declined $0.13 to $2.50, and tenderloins dropped $0.19 to $1.75. The butt primal was down 1 percent to $123.98 per hundredweight, although bone-in pork butts rose $0.03 to $1.44 per pound and boneless butts edged up $0.01 to $1.58. Notably, 114 loads of pork butts were exported last week, helping to support prices.

The rib primal gained 1 percent to $170.18 per hundredweight, with medium spareribs holding steady at $1.82 per pound. The belly primal also rose 1 percent to $168.92 per hundredweight, while the derind 13/17 belly remained flat at $2.02 per pound. In the trim segment, 42 percent trim increased $0.02 to $1.07 per pound, and 72 percent trim was up $0.03 to $1.32. The ham primal rose 1 percent to $101.65 per hundredweight.

Looking ahead, pork cutout values are expected to remain mixed to lower in the near term. However, strong international sales have provided support, even as domestic demand shows signs of softening.

Bacon:

Bacon buyers may find some relief heading into fall, as pork belly markets begin to ease from the highs seen earlier this summer. While overall pork prices remained mostly flat, the belly primal—the key driver for bacon pricing—showed signs of softening. The USDA reported an average belly primal value of $170 per hundredweight, which held steady with the previous week’s five-day average but remains approximately 35 percent higher than the same period last year. Notably, belly trade volume increased by 14 percent, indicating improved supply conditions.

On the supply side, the U.S. hog harvest came in just under 2.6 million head, and carcass weights have returned to typical seasonal levels at 212 to 213 pounds. The combination of more hogs and heavier weights contributes to greater pork availability, which generally puts downward pressure on belly prices. Industry forecasts suggest that smaller bellies in the 9 to 13-pound range could trend toward $150 per hundredweight in the coming weeks, offering welcome relief for operators managing elevated bacon costs.

Despite these developments, frozen belly inventories remain tight compared to last year. The USDA’s cold storage report through July showed belly stocks down 28 percent from the prior month and 25 percent lower year-over-year. This limited inventory acts as a buffer, slowing the pace of price declines. An updated cold storage report is expected on September 26, which will help confirm whether the easing trend continues.

Specialty and branded bacon programs are still commanding premiums, though those premiums are narrowing. USDA data shows 9 to 13-pound derind bellies averaging around $251 per hundredweight, while 13 to 17-pound bellies are priced near $242. These figures remain above commodity levels but have retreated from the peak prices seen earlier in the summer as demand cools.