Beef, Poultry & Pork Market Update

Beef

The beef market is experiencing typical year-end volatility. Holiday demand has tapered off, and packers are working through heavier carcass weights, which is adding pressure to the market. Rib and loin primals are softening as seasonal demand fades, while end cuts and grinds remain steady to slightly weaker due to slower retail movement. Trimmings are under pressure as grind demand eases post-holiday. Expect packers to adjust kill schedules to manage supply, which could stabilize pricing in the coming weeks.

Poultry

Chicken supply remains ample, with processors maintaining strong production levels. Breast meat is soft as retail and foodservice demand slows post-holiday, while wings are steady with playoff season approaching. Leg quarters continue to find support from export channels, and tenders are holding firm on foodservice demand. Overall, pricing is expected to remain under pressure until seasonal demand picks up in mid-January.

Pork

Pork markets are mixed as processors balance holiday slowdowns with export demand. Bellies have softened after strong seasonal runs, and ribs are trending lower as foodservice demand cools. Hams remain firm on export interest, while loins and butts are under pressure from retail promotions winding down. Trim markets are steady, supported by sausage demand, though cushions are holding flat.

Bacon

Holiday-shortened trading brought some big swings in the belly market. Primal bellies averaged about $126.33/cwt, and derind 9–13# bellies came in around $163.33/cwt after a strong rally Friday pushed values up before pulling back Monday. Even in a short week, these moves show how much bellies influence overall pork pricing.

Why does this matter? Bellies are a major driver of the pork cutout, and last week’s spike helped keep the cutout firm despite lighter holiday volumes. That’s important for bacon programs and menu planning going forward.

Looking ahead, supply fundamentals lean bearish into Q1. USDA’s Hogs & Pigs report shows heavier weight classes up year-over-year, which points to steady availability. Cold Storage data adds another layer—November belly inventories climbed month-over-month, giving the market a buffer against short-term shocks but not removing volatility altogether.