Beef, Poultry & Pork Market Update

Beef

Beef production remains constrained versus last year as cattle slaughter continues to run lower, though heavier cattle weights are helping offset some of the shortfall. Harvest was lower last week and production declined, keeping overall supplies tight. Boxed beef moved higher on both Choice and Select, with a firm tone across most primals. Ribs remain supported, with both light and heavy ribeyes moving higher. Loins were mixed, with strip loins and tenderloins moving higher while top sirloins and flap meat moved lower. Chucks remained supported, led by higher chuck rolls, clod hearts, clod tenders, and chuck flaps. Rounds were softer, with top inside rounds and outside rounds moving lower. Thin meats were mixed, with briskets higher but flank steak and outside skirts weaker. Ground beef was mixed, with 73% and ground chuck firmer while 81% moved lower. Near term, tight cattle availability should continue to limit downside, though movement will vary by cut.

Poultry

Chicken production remains generally adequate, though the latest production read was slightly below last year as lighter bird weights offset a small increase in slaughter. Young chicken slaughter moved modestly higher from the prior week, but lighter weights continue to limit production gains. Broiler supply remains available, though the overall market tone is softer across most chicken items. Boneless skinless breasts and tenders both moved lower and continue to face pressure. Wings were the exception and held steady while most other items weakened. Dark meat remains soft, with drumsticks, leg quarters, bone-in thighs, and boneless skinless thighs all under pressure. Producer margins remain a key watch point, as weaker returns could slow future supply growth. Overall, chicken remains a softer market this week, though longer-term supply growth bears watching.

Pork

Chicken production remains generally adequate, though the latest production read was slightly below last year as lighter bird weights offset a small increase in slaughter. Young chicken slaughter moved modestly higher from the prior week, but lighter weights continue to limit production gains. Broiler supply remains available, though the overall market tone is softer across most chicken items. Boneless skinless breasts and tenders both moved lower and continue to face pressure. Wings were the exception and held steady while most other items weakened. Dark meat remains soft, with drumsticks, leg quarters, bone-in thighs, and boneless skinless thighs all under pressure. Producer margins remain a key watch point, as weaker returns could slow future supply growth. Overall, chicken remains a softer market this week, though longer-term supply growth bears watching.

Bacon

Bellies remain the strongest segment of the pork complex and continue to move higher. The near-term trend is still firm, though the pace of the rally is slowing as the market approaches a seasonal peak. Tight slaughter levels and seasonal bacon demand continue to provide support. The broader pork cutout has started to soften, signaling that the rally may be nearing its final stage. Sales should view the current tone as firm short term while watching closely for signs that the market has topped.