Beef, Poultry & Pork Market Update

Beef

Beef production declined from the previous week and remained below the same period last year. Year-to-date output continues to trail last year as reduced cattle slaughter limits available supply. USDA expects fourth-quarter production to remain below 2025 levels, although output is projected to improve from the third quarter. Cattle availability remains tight, and any increase in heifer retention for herd rebuilding could further restrict near-term slaughter. Beef demand remains inconsistent as elevated costs continue to affect purchasing decisions. Boxed beef experienced broad pressure last week across both Choice and Select product. Increased imports are providing some supply relief, with August import volume reaching a monthly record. Imported beef availability should continue to weigh on the trim complex through the fall. Near-term beef supplies remain constrained, but uneven demand and higher import volume should limit broader market support.

Poultry

Young broiler slaughter increased slightly from the previous week and was just above the same week last year. Chicken production for the week ending October 3 declined from both the prior week and last year. Weekly output remains limited despite broiler-layer inventories running well above prior-year levels. Producers continue to control supply by placing a smaller share of available chicks into grow houses. This disciplined placement strategy is keeping production from expanding as quickly as breeder inventories would otherwise suggest. Chicken continues to benefit from its value position compared with competing proteins. Breast meat, tenders, and wings remain attractively positioned for foodservice demand. Whole-bird availability is more balanced as processors manage slaughter schedules and product mix. Producer discipline should provide support through the fall and into the winter. Overall market conditions remain balanced, with controlled production limiting the potential for excess supply.

Pork

Pork production increased from the previous week and exceeded the same week last year, while year-to-date output remains slightly below 2025. Hog slaughter continues to trail last year, and USDA lowered its fourth-quarter pork supply projection to below prior-year levels. Larger weekly supplies and weak domestic consumption continue to pressure the pork cutout. Export demand has provided limited support, with August shipments below last year and the lowest August volume in four years. Pork continues to offer a substantial value advantage compared with beef, but that spread has not generated a meaningful domestic demand response. Mexico remains the largest export destination, although year-to-date trade with Mexico is running below recent years. Near-term pork availability should remain adequate, with attractive market conditions expected to continue through the fall.

Bacon

The belly market has moved from the September decline into a more stable, range-bound pattern. Belly inventories remain below the five-year average, providing some supply support as the market moves deeper into the fourth quarter. Recent trading has been volatile, indicating that available spot supply remains sensitive to changes in buying activity. Seasonal demand and improved export movement are helping establish a near-term floor, although broader pork demand remains uneven. Raw bacon moved higher for the week of October 11, ending a seven-week stretch without a positive adjustment. The belly complex is expected to remain range-bound over the next one to two weeks, with continued potential for short-term volatility.