Beef, Poultry & Pork Market Update

Beef:

The cattle market saw a modest decline last week. The October CME live cattle futures contract, which is currently the front-month, slipped 1% to close at $236.95/cwt. Other futures contracts also moved lower by nearly 1%. Cash cattle prices held steady at $244/cwt as of Thursday evening.

Slaughter numbers reached 565,000 head, up 14,000 from the previous week but still 8.4% below the same week last year. Steer carcass weights remained unchanged at 1,415 lbs, though they are 21 lbs heavier than year-ago levels. Total beef production came in at 488 million pounds, a 2.6% increase week-over-week but down 7% year-over-year.

Cutout values were mostly flat. The Choice cutout closed at $414.21/cwt, and Select at $387.77/cwt. Within the Choice category, bone-in export ribs rose $0.72 to $13.37/lb, and boneless heavy ribeyes gained $0.39 to $14.76/lb. The loin complex was mixed: shortloins increased $0.49 to $8.34/lb, striploins eased $0.13 to $8.49/lb, and top sirloins declined $0.14 to $6.06/lb. Tenderloins continued their upward trend, climbing $0.60 to $19.25/lb — a year-to-date high.

End cuts showed varied movement. Chuck rolls rose $0.40 to $6.89/lb, and shoulder clods edged up $0.02 to $4.30/lb. In the round complex, inside rounds fell $0.26 to $4.77/lb, and bottom round flats dropped $0.14 to $4.42/lb.

Ground beef and trim markets softened following the holiday. 81% lean ground beef fell $0.23 to $3.90/lb. In the trim segment, 50% trim declined $0.08 to $1.52/lb, while 90% lean trim held steady at $4.33/lb.

Looking ahead, boxed beef values are expected to trend lower through September. While harvest volumes have increased over the past three weeks to meet holiday demand, processors may scale back to manage cash cattle costs. Cuts like tenderloins and ribs are showing counter seasonal strength and are likely to remain firm heading into fall.

Poultry:

USDA reported a young chicken harvest of 173.4 million head last week, up 1.6% from the previous week and 1.2% higher than the same week last year. Average bird weights reached 6.60 pounds, slightly heavier than last year’s 6.52-pound average. Total production rose 2.4% week-over-week to 870 million pounds.

Broiler placements also increased, with 194 million chicks placed for meat production — a slight week-over-week gain and 1% above year-ago levels.

Wholesale chicken prices moved lower overall. Retail ad activity ticked up 2% week-over-week. In the whole bird segment, the National Composite WOG price fell $0.02 to $1.15/lb. For foodservice WOGs, the 2.5–3.5 lb category dropped $0.01 to $1.12/lb, while the under 2.5 lb birds rose $0.01 to $1.40/lb. The over 3.5 lb category declined $0.03 to $1.03/lb.

White meat pricing was sharply lower. Boneless, skinless breasts fell $0.06 to $1.97/lb, and tenderloins dropped $0.11 to $2.42/lb. Breasts remain up 1% month-over-month and 9% year-over-year.

Wing prices held steady at $1.73/lb. Drumsticks declined to $0.54/lb. Wings are up nearly 1% month-over-month but remain 26% below last year and 11% under the five-year average.

Dark meat was flat. Boneless, skinless thigh meat stayed at $1.91/lb, and bone-in thighs held at $0.88/lb. Boneless thighs are down 3.6% month-over-month but up 2% year-over-year and 16% above the five-year average.

In the turkey segment, boneless breasts rose 2%, while whole bone-in birds were unchanged. The egg market was flat week-over-week, but the USDA large eggshell index is now down nearly 40% compared to last year.

Looking ahead, chicken harvest volumes are expected to continue rising through September. Retail promotions should pick up as summer winds down, which may help support pricing. However, new tariff challenges are creating uncertainty in export channels. With beef prices at record highs, foodservice demand for chicken is likely to increase.

Pork:

Lean hog prices were mixed last week. The October CME futures contract, currently the front-month, rose 1% to $95.25/cwt, while most deferred contracts also posted similar gains. On the cash side, spot hogs edged slightly lower to $105.92/cwt by Thursday evening.

Harvest volumes dipped slightly to 2.39 million head, down 1.5% compared to the same week last year. Total pork production reached 499 million pounds. Export activity slowed, with only 643 truckloads sold internationally — a notable drop from prior weeks.

The pork cutout value increased 2% to $113.32/cwt, supported by gains in several primals, particularly butts and hams. The loin primal rose 2% to $96.44/cwt. Boneless pork loins gained $0.05 to $1.37/lb, while loin and baby back ribs declined $0.12 to $2.54/lb. Tenderloins eased $0.02 to $1.95/lb.

The butt primal climbed 2% to $125.34/cwt. Bone-in pork butts rose $0.02 to $1.41/lb, and boneless butts were up $0.01 to $1.58/lb. Export demand helped support pricing, with 50 loads of butts shipped internationally.

The rib primal slipped 1% to $170.79/cwt. Medium spareribs fell $0.04 to $1.86/lb. The belly primal moved up 1% to $182.05/cwt, though the derind 13/17 belly subprimal declined $0.02 to $2.19/lb.

Trim markets were stronger. 42% trim increased $0.10 to $1.26/lb, and 72% trim rose $0.14 to $1.22/lb. The ham primal posted a 4% gain, closing at $105.35/cwt.

Looking ahead, cash hog prices are expected to trend lower. The pork cutout may soften in the near term, driven by slowing domestic demand and continued uncertainty around tariffs and export volumes.

Bacon:

As we move into September, the pork market is entering a seasonal transition, marked by shifting demand and emerging volatility. Labor Day provided a final push for pork cutout values, especially in the belly complex, thanks to strong retail features and foodservice promotions. However, that momentum is beginning to fade as we head into the fall quarter.

Pork bellies — the foundation of the bacon category — are showing signs of recalibration. After peaking mid-summer, belly primal values have declined for several consecutive weeks and are now at their lowest point since early July. Even with this recent softness, prices remain well above year-ago levels, supported by tight cold storage inventories and strong summer movement.

Adding to the complexity is the continued underperformance in weekly hog harvest volumes. While USDA had projected a 4% increase in available hogs for the September–November period, actual slaughter numbers have been flat to slightly lower compared to 2024. This disconnect is contributing to market uncertainty and helping to keep prices elevated across several pork categories.