Beef, Poultry & Pork Market Update

Beef:

The CME JUN cattle contract, now the front-month contract, rose by 0.6 percent to $215.62 per hundredweight (cwt) after a volatile week of trading. Other futures contracts also gained around 1 percent, recovering late in the week after earlier declines. Spot/cash cattle prices increased by $2 to $232/cwt as of Thursday night’s close.

Beef cattle harvest totaled 570,000 head, up 0.7 percent week-over-week (w/w), but still 5.3 percent lower than the same week last year. Packers continue to limit harvest volumes in an effort to manage cash cattle costs. Steer carcass weights declined by 2 pounds to 1,430 pounds, though they remain 36 pounds heavier than a year ago. Beef production rose to 496 million pounds.

Both the choice and select beef cutouts moved higher. The choice cutout increased by 1 percent to $366.09/cwt, while the select cutout also rose 1 percent to $353.64/cwt. Within the choice cutout, the bone-in export rib held steady at $10.84 per pound, while the boneless ribeye declined by $0.82 to $12.52 per pound. The loin complex was mostly steady to slightly higher: choice shortloins rose by $0.07 to $9.86 per pound, striploins increased by $0.13 to $11.34 per pound, and top sirloins climbed by $0.33 to $6.80 per pound. Tenderloins remained unchanged at $14.30 per pound.

End cuts were mixed. In the chuck segment, chuck rolls rose by $0.13 to $4.17 per pound, and shoulder clods increased by $0.12 to $3.81 per pound. In the round complex, inside rounds fell by $0.10 to $3.79 per pound, while bottom round flats rose by $0.10 to $3.72 per pound.

The ground beef and trim markets were also stronger. Ground beef 81% increased by $0.03 to $3.62 per pound. In the trim segment, 50% trim rose by $0.07 to $1.32 per pound, and 90% lean trim edged higher to $3.81 per pound.

Looking ahead, the beef market is experiencing upward pressure as cash cattle prices continue to rise. With harvest volumes expected to remain limited in the near term, beef prices are likely to see continued support.

Poultry:

The USDA reported that the young chicken harvest totaled 168.7 million head last week, holding steady week-over-week (w/w) and up 2.3 percent compared to the same period last year. The average bird weight increased to 6.59 pounds, up from 6.44 pounds a year ago. As a result, total production rose by 0.5 percent w/w to 845 million pounds.

Broiler growers placed 193.6 million chicks for meat production during the week ending May 24, 2025—an increase of 1 percent year-over-year. Hatchability averaged 79.1 percent, still below seasonal norms.

Wholesale chicken prices were mixed. Tenderloins and boneless thigh meat saw the strongest gains, while overall retail promotions dropped 16 percent w/w, with tenderloins experiencing the steepest decline in advertising.

Breaking down the pricing:

• Whole birds and WOGs: National Composite prices were flat at $1.35/lb. In foodservice, 2.5–3.5 lb WOGs rose $0.01 to $1.35/lb, 2.5dn WOGs held steady at $1.43/lb, and 3.5up WOGs increased $0.01 to $1.24/lb.
• White meat: Boneless/skinless breasts dipped $0.01 to $2.76/lb, while tenderloins rose $0.05 to $2.44/lb. Month-over-month (m/m), breasts were flat, and tenderloins were up 11.5 percent.
• Dark meat: Chicken wings rose $0.01 to $1.14/lb, though they remain down 14 percent m/m and 50 percent year-over-year (y/y). Drumsticks increased $0.05 to $0.51/lb. Boneless/skinless thigh meat climbed $0.03 to $2.45/lb, while bone-in thighs stayed flat at $0.88/lb. B/S thigh meat is up 11 percent m/m and 38 percent y/y.

In the turkey segment, boneless breasts rose 1 percent, while bone-in whole turkeys dropped 8 percent w/w. The USDA’s large eggshell index declined 8 percent w/w, reflecting light demand from both retail and foodservice.

Looking ahead, chicken prices appear to have stabilized. Demand for white meat is expected to remain firm as a cost-effective protein option, supported by constrained harvest volumes and steady demand from both grocery and foodservice channels heading into the summer season.

Pork:

CME hog futures and cash lean hogs moved higher last week. The CME JUN contract, now the front-month, rose by 1 percent to $100.20 per hundredweight (cwt), while most other contract months gained between 0.5 and 1 percent. Spot/cash hogs also increased, up 1.7 percent to $93.50/cwt as of Thursday night’s close.

Hog harvest volumes declined by 1.6 percent to 2.36 million head, resulting in lower pork production at 511 million pounds. Despite the drop in output, the USDA reported a sharp increase in international pork sales, totaling 814 loads—over 300 more than the previous week. This surge helped lift the pork cutout by 4 percent to $104.62/cwt.

Breaking down the primals and subprimals:

• Loin primal rose 2 percent, largely due to stronger trim values. However, most subprimal cuts were lower:
  • Boneless pork loins fell $0.02 to $1.36/lb
  • Loin/baby back ribs dropped $0.10 to $2.90/lb
  • Tenderloins declined $0.05 to $1.78/lb
• Pork butt primal increased 3 percent to $129.42/cwt:
  • Bone-in pork rose $0.03 to $1.48/lb
  • Boneless pork butt climbed $0.05 to $1.62/lb
  • Export sales for pork butts surged to 11.4 million pounds
• Rib primal held steady at $155.75/cwt, while medium spareribs dipped $0.02 to $1.69/lb
• Belly, ham, and trim segments saw notable gains:
  • Belly primal rose 5 percent to $150.16/cwt
  • Derind 13/17 belly increased $0.07 to $1.83/lb
  • Ham primal jumped 9 percent to $99.16/cwt
  • 42% trim rose $0.09 to $0.64/lb
  • 72% trim increased $0.14 to $1.19/lb

Looking ahead, the sharp rebound in international sales helped drive the pork cutout higher. While trade tensions and tariffs remain a potential headwind, the near-term outlook for the pork market appears positive.

Bacon:

THE BELLY MARKET CONTINUED WITH DAY-TO-DAY VOLATILITY FOR THE HOLIDAY SHORTENED WEEK – WITH LIMITED STRENGTH FOLLOWING THE LONG WEEKEND THIS WEEK:

The belly complex again found volatility across the 5-day pricing week for daily market closes, but overall, the markets performed on forecast with general weakness and modest to mild downward pricing risk for the week. Further easing is forecasted for the coming 2-4 weeks, with the belly market not currently anticipated to shift back to upward risk potential until the second half of June… and significant strength and momentum forecasted to push the market higher in July. The averages for the week were near 145 (USDA PRIMAL) / 190 (USDA 9/13 DERIND), relatively unchanged from the week prior, with a marginal increase in the USDA PRIMAL week over week, and modest decrease in the USDA 9/13 DERIND market(s). Looking ahead, look for mild to moderate downward risk to continue, with limited strength if any over the next couple of weeks. The potential for returning strength is anticipated for late June / early July, with strength to likely to gain momentum quickly, and “rocket” to the peak by mid-August. In the short-term, weakness is not expected to drive values substantially lower but does have the potential to push values below 130 (USDA PRIMAL) / 160 (USDA 9/13 DERIND) if demand softens enough between now and the upcoming Independence Day (July 4^th) holiday. At this time, the industry is calling the markets to hit the pre-summer LOW the first week of July, then to find significant strength through July and into August, driving values to the summer (and likely annual) HIGH by mid-August, currently called to mimic the 5-year average HIGH near 175-185 (USDA PRIMAL) / 220-230 (USDA 9/13 DERIND). “What goes up, must come down” – and once the belly market(s) reach the peak, expectations are for values to fall twice as fast on the way down as they rose on the surge up… with the current outlook calling for bellies to return to pre-summer LOWs by the second (2^nd) week of September at or near 135 (USDA PRIMAL) / 165 (USDA 9/13 DERIND).

*Risk to the forecast is believed to have greater potential to perform higher / stronger rather than weaker.