Beef, Poultry & Pork Market Update

Beef

The beef complex moved through a holiday‑restricted production week with lighter volumes and softer tone across high‑value primals. Choice boxed beef values held in the mid‑$340s to low‑$350s per cwt range through December 29 to January 2, reflecting seasonal retreat from pre‑Christmas strength and reduced spot load counts. Ribs and loins declined as holiday demand tapered, while chucks and rounds remained comparatively steady due to moderated but consistent retail pull. These movements align with USDA’s late‑December negotiated boxed beef data, which showed daily Choice cutout values softening slightly across the shortened week.

Structurally tight cattle supplies continue to underpin most end‑cut and trim values. Analysts and industry data point to ongoing constrained cattle availability heading into Q1, highlighted by fall cow and heifer slaughter trending sharply lower than year‑ago levels. This restricted pipeline helps maintain a firm undertone even when holiday or early‑January demand softens, suggesting a limited downside for beef trims and end cuts as the industry transitions into the new year. [

The general movement for the week reflects ribs down, loins down, chucks steady, rounds down, thin meats down, 50 percent trim down, and 90 percent trim steady based on USDA’s rolling composite primal values for late December through January 2.

Poultry

Broiler supply fundamentals remained steady to ample moving into the first week of January. USDA’s Broiler Hatchery Report for the week ending December 27 showed egg sets up approximately 2 percent year over year and chick placements up about 1 percent, reinforcing expectations for consistent early‑Q1 availability. These placement numbers form the backbone of January and February production and indicate no meaningful supply tightness ahead.

Market behavior across chicken parts was largely level. Breast meat and tenders were reported as flat through mid‑December trade commentary, reflecting adequate supply and moderate retail and processor interest. Wings remained steady heading into playoff season, with competitive spot offerings available. Leg quarters held firm, aided by stable export demand. The combination of steady hatchery throughput and flat‑to‑steady part pricing suggests a well‑supplied poultry market entering 2026.

Key directional movement for the week shows breast meat down, wings steady, leg quarters steady, tenders steady, and whole birds down.

Pork

The pork cutout ended the week in the mid‑$94 to $96 per cwt range, closing slightly lower but generally stable across the mix of primals. Ribs showed firm upward movement, supported by strong foodservice interest and tighter spot offerings, while hams softened meaningfully on slower holiday export flow. Butts posted modest gains, loins hovered close to unchanged levels, and bellies finished the period nearly flat despite intraday volatility. These trends align closely with USDA AMS Weekly Comprehensive and Negotiated Reports, which reported a belly primal near $125 to $126 per cwt and upward rib movement offset by persistent ham weakness.

The short production week and lighter holiday demand introduced some variability, but packers remained balanced, using throughput adjustments and export commitments to stabilize pricing. Cutout performance continues to depend heavily on belly and ham direction, and both will serve as the leading indicators of January price action. Pork Checkoff week‑over‑week primal comparisons confirm bellies essentially unchanged, spareribs moderately higher, hams lower, loins relatively steady, and back ribs, tenderloins, and butts posting modest gains.

Overall movements for the week reflect bellies steady, spareribs up, hams down, loins steady, back ribs slightly up, tenderloins slightly up, butts up, picnic down, cushion down, fat trim steady to slightly up, and lean trim steady to slightly up.

Bacon

Fresh belly pricing was choppy but ultimately unchanged on a weekly basis. USDA negotiated data for January 2 placed derind 9–13 pound bellies near $1.53 per pound, and CME’s Fresh Bacon Index showed a modest decline during the final week of December, suggesting a stabilizing environment after holiday price swings. Daily ranges in the USDA negotiated reports stayed tight, reinforcing the steady overall posture.

On the comprehensive cutout, belly contribution remained stable, with small intraweek moves that did not create a definitive direction shift. Industry attention now turns to freezer inventories and January ham export activity for cues that could influence near‑term bacon availability and pricing. USDA’s primal comparisons confirm fresh bellies holding essentially steady for the week.

The directional movement for the week reflects fresh bellies steady to slightly higher with intermittent volatility, and overall bacon program pricing stable as post‑holiday volumes normalize.