Beef, Poultry & Pork Market Update

Beef:

The cattle market held steady this week. Cash prices remained firm at $244/cwt, while futures saw modest gains. The October CME live cattle contract rose 1.5% to settle at $242.10 per hundredweight, and deferred contracts posted similar increases. Harvest volume climbed to 565,000 head, up 35,000 from the prior week but still 52,000 below year-ago levels. Carcass weights averaged 919 pounds, unchanged week-over-week but 17 pounds heavier than last year. Beef production totaled 519 million pounds, up 2% from the previous week.

Boxed beef values were mixed. The Choice cutout rose slightly to $415.41/cwt, while the Select cutout jumped $4.16 to $390.00/cwt, narrowing the Choice-Select spread to $25.41. Rib primals led the charge, gaining $22.78 to reach $637.20/cwt, driven by strong demand for premium cuts. Loins also moved higher, up $12.44 to $493.36/cwt, marking a new high for 2025. Chucks and rounds posted moderate gains, with chuck values up $4.89 to $372.21/cwt and rounds up $3.94 to $365.81/cwt. Briskets increased $5.71 to $336.79/cwt, and short plates surged $11.42 to $271.17/cwt. Flanks climbed $6.88 to $234.10/cwt, both hitting record highs.

Subprimal performance was strong across foodservice-focused items. Boneless ribeyes and bone-in export ribs continued to climb, while tenderloins saw another seasonal bump. Chuck rolls and shoulder clods gained traction, supporting value-driven menu applications. Inside rounds and bottom round flats also moved higher, reflecting steady institutional demand.

Ground beef and trim markets remained firm. 81% lean ground beef traded actively, and both 50% and 90% lean trim posted modest gains. With Labor Day now behind us, boxed beef values are expected to remain elevated in the short term. Foodservice buyers should anticipate continued strength in ribs, loins, and tenderloins, as seasonal demand and holiday momentum carry into early September.

Poultry:

Poultry harvest for the week ending August 30 came in at 174.2 million head, up 2.4 million from the prior week and 1.5 percent higher than the same week last year. Average bird weight was 6.61 pounds, slightly heavier than last year’s 6.46-pound average. The increase in size pushed total production to 875 million pounds, up 1.7 percent week-over-week.

Broiler placements continued to trend higher. U.S. growers placed 194 million chicks for meat production, up 0.5 percent from the previous week and 1 percent above year-ago levels. Hatchability held steady at 79.7 percent.

Wholesale chicken prices were mixed. Whole birds and WOGs softened slightly, while white meat showed signs of price pressure. Retail ad activity was down 3 percent week-over-week, following a strong Labor Day push.

In the whole bird and WOG segment, the National Composite slipped $0.01 to $1.17 per pound. Foodservice WOGs in the 2.5 to 3.5-pound range fell $0.01 to $1.11 per pound. The under 2.5-pound category dropped $0.02 to $1.40 per pound, and the over 3.5-pound birds declined $0.03 to $1.01 per pound.

White meat pricing was softer. Boneless, skinless breasts fell $0.03 to $1.99 per pound, with jumbo breast meat under pressure due to increased availability. Tenderloins dropped $0.05 to $2.54 per pound, reflecting weaker demand from further processors.

Wing prices were mixed. Small wings held steady, while medium and jumbo wings declined $0.02 to $1.70 per pound. Despite the dip, wings remain up 5.8 percent month-over-month but are still 28 percent below year-ago levels and 9 percent under the five-year average. Drumsticks eased $0.01 to $0.55 per pound.

Dark meat trends were mostly lower. Boneless, skinless thigh meat dropped $0.03 to $1.91 per pound. It’s now down 5 percent month-over-month but remains 4.2 percent higher year-over-year and 17 percent above the five-year average. Bone-in thighs were unchanged at $0.88 per pound.

In the turkey segment, boneless turkey breasts held steady, while whole bone-in birds declined $0.02 week-over-week. Production remains constrained due to earlier flock reductions and ongoing HPAI concerns.

The egg market continued to soften. The USDA’s large eggshell index fell 7 percent week-over-week and is now down 27 percent year-over-year. Dried and processed egg components also saw declines, with dried egg production down 6 percent and whites off 3 percent.

Looking ahead, chicken harvest volumes remain consistent with last year. While seasonal demand has eased post-Labor Day, export uncertainty tied to tariffs and bird health issues may weigh on the market through Q4. Foodservice buyers should monitor jumbo breast and wing markets closely, as pricing volatility is expected to persist.

Pork:

Lean hog prices were mostly steady last week. The October CME futures contract rose 0.8 percent to settle at $90.56 per hundredweight, while deferred contracts posted gains of 1 to 2 percent. On the cash side, spot hogs closed Thursday night at $108.19 per hundredweight, down slightly from the prior week.

Harvest volumes totaled 2.45 million head, up 1.2 percent week-over-week but still 3.5 percent below the same week last year. Total pork production reached 512 million pounds. Export activity was mixed, with 1,149 truckloads sold internationally, including strong demand for variety meats and ribs.

The pork cutout value was nearly flat, closing at $111.49 per hundredweight, down $0.17 from the previous week. Primal values were mixed, with strength in the butt, rib, and belly sections offset by weakness in hams and picnics.

The loin primal rose 0.8 percent to $94.47 per hundredweight. Boneless pork loins were steady at $1.31 per pound, while baby back ribs eased $0.06 to $2.65 per pound. Tenderloins held firm at $1.96 per pound.

The butt primal climbed 1.2 percent to $123.06 per hundredweight. Bone-in pork butts rose $0.04 to $1.37 per pound, and boneless butts gained $0.03 to $1.57 per pound. Export sales of butts remained active, supporting prices.

The rib primal increased 0.6 percent to $172.10 per hundredweight. Medium spareribs were up $0.06 to $1.87 per pound, and St. Louis-style ribs gained $0.03 to $2.38 per pound.

The belly primal rebounded 2 percent to $180.76 per hundredweight. Derind 13/17 bellies rose $0.03 to $2.18 per pound, and skin-on bellies held steady at $2.14 per pound.

The ham primal declined 0.9 percent to $101.01 per hundredweight. Selected hams in the 20–23 lb range fell $0.02 to $1.10 per pound, while 23–27 lb hams were unchanged at $1.06 per pound.

Trim markets were weaker. 42 percent trim dropped $0.11 to $1.14 per pound, and 72 percent trim fell $0.07 to $1.13 per pound. Boxed frozen trim also declined, down $0.07 to $1.20 per pound.

Looking ahead, cash hog prices are expected to trend lower. The pork cutout is forecast to remain mixed in the near term, with potential downside risk in hams and trim. Export demand remains a key variable, especially with ongoing tariff uncertainty and shifting global buying patterns.

Bacon:

As the industry transitions out of the summer season and past the Labor Day holiday, the U.S. pork market is entering a period of shifting supply and demand. Strong foodservice and retail activity throughout the summer helped drive elevated pricing across key pork primals, especially bellies, which are central to the bacon category. However, recent trends suggest that the seasonal peak may have passed.

New cold storage data shows pork belly inventories are down 25% compared to last year, marking the lowest July stock levels since 2010. This tight supply has supported pricing in recent weeks, but the market is beginning to soften. Belly prices fell nearly 6% week-over-week, while trading volume increased, indicating active buying at more favorable price points.

On the supply side, herd health challenges—particularly ongoing PRRS (Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome) outbreaks—have led to reduced slaughter rates and lighter carcass weights, further limiting availability. While USDA projections point to a potential recovery in production later in Q4, the short-term outlook remains cautious.