Beef, Poultry & Pork Market Update

Beef:

Last week, the June live cattle futures contract on the CME slipped by 1.5%, landing at $221.75 per hundredweight. Other contracts followed suit, trading about 1% lower. In the cash market, cattle prices also dipped, closing at $228/cwt by Thursday night.

Looking at harvest numbers, total beef cattle slaughter came in at 554,000 head—just a bit lower than the previous week, but down 10% compared to the same time last year. Steer carcass weights dropped slightly by 4 pounds to 1,419 lbs, though they’re still 37 pounds heavier than a year ago. Beef production also edged down to 480 million pounds.

Despite the dip in live cattle prices, boxed beef values held firm. As of Thursday night, both Choice and Select cutouts were up 1%, with Choice reaching $395.05/cwt and Select at $379.74/cwt. Within the Choice category, there were some mixed movements. Bone-in export ribs fell to $9.32/lb, and boneless ribeyes dropped to $11.01/lb. Shortloins and striploins also saw slight declines, while top sirloins dipped for the first time in over two months. Tenderloins were down too, closing at $14.72/lb.

End cuts like chucks and rounds showed a mixed picture. Chuck rolls were down a bit, but shoulder clods actually ticked up. In the round complex, inside rounds slipped while bottom round flats nudged higher.

Ground beef and trim markets were the standout movers. Ground beef (81% lean) climbed to $3.96/lb. Trim prices surged—50% trim hit a new record at $2.34/lb, and 90% lean trim rose to $4.04/lb.

Looking ahead, even though packers might scale back harvests to ease cash cattle prices, beef prices are still expected to rise and could peak as early as next week.

Poultry:

Last week, the U.S. processed about 170.9 million young chickens, which is up 3.6% from the same week last year. The average bird weighed in at 6.56 pounds—slightly heavier than last year’s 6.50 pounds. That bump in both volume and weight pushed total chicken production up 4.5% year-over-year to 852 million pounds.

Broiler growers placed 195 million chicks for meat production during the week ending June 21, 2025, which is a 1% increase from a year ago. Hatchability averaged 79.3% for the week.

On the pricing side, wholesale chicken prices were mixed. Tenderloins and wings saw small gains, while boneless/skinless breasts dropped sharply by $0.26 to $2.39/lb. Despite that dip, breasts are still 42% higher than this time last year, even though they’re down 14% month-over-month. Wings rose $0.06 to $1.26/lb, and drumsticks edged up $0.03 to $0.58/lb. Boneless/skinless thigh meat slipped $0.04 to $2.41/lb, while bone-in thighs held steady at $0.88/lb.

Whole birds and WOGs (with or without giblets) were mostly flat. National Composite whole birds stayed at $1.37/lb. In foodservice, the 2.5–3.5 lb WOGs were also flat at $1.37/lb, while the larger 3.5+ lb WOGs dipped $0.03 to $1.24/lb.

Retail ads were up just 3% week-over-week, with whole fryers getting the most promotional attention.

In the turkey segment, prices nudged higher, with turkey breasts up 4% on the week. Meanwhile, the USDA’s large eggshell index rose 1% week-over-week but is still down 10% compared to last month.

Looking ahead, the chicken market is expected to follow its usual seasonal slowdown. However, demand for white meat should remain steady thanks to its affordability and consistent interest from both retail and foodservice buyers heading into summer.

Pork:

Last week, the CME July lean hog futures contract held steady at $112.32 per hundredweight, while most other contract months saw slight declines. In contrast, spot or cash hog prices moved higher, climbing 6.5% to $110.50/cwt by Thursday evening.

Hog harvest numbers were unchanged week-over-week at 2.38 million head, though that’s about 2% lower than the same week last year. Pork production also dipped, coming in at 508 million pounds. On the export front, USDA reported a drop in international pork sales—down 150 loads from the previous week to 530 loads total.

The pork cutout value rose 1% for the week, closing at $119.65/cwt, and it’s up nearly 14% for the month of June. Within the primals, the loin segment was slightly weaker, with the primal value at $97.85/cwt. However, boneless pork loins edged up to $1.41/lb, baby back ribs increased to $3.19/lb, and tenderloins jumped $0.30 to $2.05/lb.

The pork butt primal stayed flat at $146.96/cwt. Bone-in pork butts held steady at $1.71/lb, while boneless butts slipped $0.03 to $1.81/lb. Export sales for pork butts were light, totaling just 1.2 million pounds.

Ribs showed strength, with the rib primal up 2% to $173.02/cwt and medium spareribs rising slightly to $1.84/lb. The belly and trim markets were mixed. The belly primal gained 4% to $193.98/cwt, with derind 13/17 bellies up $0.11 to $2.36/lb. On the trim side, 42% trim dropped $0.08 to $0.97/lb, and 72% trim fell sharply by $0.21 to $1.05/lb. The ham primal also declined, down 2% to $109.73/cwt.

Looking ahead, the upward momentum in lean hog prices appears to be slowing, and many primal cut values are nearing their seasonal peaks. Prices are expected to soften in the coming month. Adding to the uncertainty is the pending conclusion of the 90-day trade negotiation pause in early July, which could impact tariff policies and market direction.

Bacon:

The pork belly market continues its impressive rally as we wrap up June, with both the USDA primal and 9/13 derind belly markets posting gains for the sixth straight week. This week’s averages climbed to around 190 for the USDA primal and 235 for the 9/13 derind—up from 185 and 230, respectively, just a week ago.

That said, the market is now brushing up against what many had forecasted as the seasonal high, so some resistance is expected in the coming weeks. With the July 4th holiday creating a shortened trading week, we might see a bit of softening or sideways movement in the near term. Still, the broader outlook remains bullish. Tight supplies—both fresh and frozen—are supporting prices, and there’s potential for values to push even higher, possibly reaching 220 for the USDA primal and 260 for the 9/13 derind by early to mid-August.

After that, a seasonal correction is likely. Historically, belly prices tend to retreat from their summer highs heading into late August and early September, especially around Labor Day. Forecasts for the fall vary widely: some expect prices to hold in the 175–215 range, others see a drop to 160–200, and a few are calling for a return to the five-year average near 135 for the primal and 175 for the derind.

What’s clear is that there’s growing consensus around tight belly supplies in the second half of the year, which could keep prices elevated longer than previously expected. The upcoming USDA Hogs & Pigs Report, due later this week, should offer more clarity on how this might play out.