Beef, Poultry & Pork Market Update

Beef

Beef production improved from the prior week, but overall supplies continue to run below last year as cattle slaughter remains lower on a year-to-date basis. Output is expected to improve seasonally through Q4, which should provide some additional product availability heading into the fall. Live and feeder cattle markets moved higher on the week despite softer activity at week's end. Boxed beef values moved lower overall, with pressure centered in briskets, flanks, and plate items, while rib primals moved higher. Rib markets continue to trend up while strip loins and tenderloins are trending lower. Chuck items remain generally higher, supported by gains in chuck rolls, clod hearts, clod tenders, and chuck flaps. Round markets continue to soften with top inside rounds and outside rounds moving lower. Thin meats remain under pressure as briskets, flanks, and outside skirts continue to decline. Ground beef markets remain mixed, with 73% ground beef lower while 81% ground beef moved higher. Near-term beef availability remains historically tight, but improving production and resumed cattle imports from Mexico should provide some additional supply support moving into Q4.

Poultry

Chicken slaughter improved slightly from the prior week, while production remained below year-ago levels due to reduced bird harvest. Year-to-date production remains ahead of last year, although producers appear to be managing output more conservatively in an effort to improve margins. Bird productivity remains strong, supported by larger layer inventories and record pounds produced per layer. Broiler supplies remain adequate despite recent production restraint. Demand remains uneven across the complex. Boneless skinless breasts moved higher, while tenders continued lower and reached multi-year lows. Wings moved lower and remain one of the weakest major categories. Dark meat performed better, with drumsticks, leg quarters, and bone-in thighs all moving higher week over week. Boneless thighs moved slightly lower. Producers appear focused on limiting growth rather than aggressively expanding supply, although larger layer inventories could cap future upside if profitability improves. Overall poultry markets remain mixed with breast meat showing support while wings and tenders continue to face pressure.

Pork

Pork production increased modestly from the prior week and remains slightly above last year despite lower year-to-date hog slaughter. Limited hog supplies continue to temper overall production growth. Pork cutout values moved lower and reached their lowest level since February. Bellies led the decline while hams posted gains and ribs remained supported. Loins softened during the week, while tenderloins moved higher. Trim markets remained under pressure with both fat trim and lean trim moving lower. Pork continues to maintain a significant value advantage versus beef, but demand has not been enough to offset broader market weakness. Seasonal tendencies remain negative as September historically produces lower pork values, particularly in bellies and trim, while ribs and butts tend to hold value better. Near-term market tone remains softer with pressure expected across belly and trim categories.

Bacon

Belly markets continued to soften, although the pace of decline slowed during the most recent week. Bacon pricing moved lower for the third consecutive week. Seasonal demand from Labor Day provided temporary support, but that pull has largely passed. Supply conditions remain adequate with expectations for increasing pork production moving through the fall. Near-term bacon markets are expected to trend lower as bellies continue to work through seasonal pressure. The one to two week outlook remains negative with additional downside expected across belly and bacon markets.