Beef, Poultry & Pork Market Update

Beef

Cattle markets strengthened slightly last week. The February live cattle futures contract rose just over one percent to $235.50/cwt, and most deferred contracts followed with similar gains. Cash cattle moved $2 higher to $235/cwt as of Thursday. Steer carcass weights increased two pounds to 1,470 pounds, now running thirty‑nine pounds over last year. Beef production totaled 480 million pounds, a 7.3 percent decline year over year, while harvest levels dropped to 535,000 head—down nearly ten percent from the same week last year.

Choice and Select cutouts slipped modestly. Choice eased to $367.66/cwt, while Select softened to $360.72/cwt. Among middle meats, bone‑in export ribs moved lower, but heavy boneless ribeyes found slight support. Loin items showed mixed movement, with shortloins pulling back while striploins and top sirloins improved. Tenderloins eased slightly for the week. End cuts weakened across most chuck and round items, including softer chuck rolls and clods. Inside rounds dipped, while bottom round flats inched slightly higher. Ground beef remained firm, supported by higher values in 81% product. Trim trends were mixed, with 50% steady and 90% lean trimming slightly higher.

Looking ahead, harvest levels aligned with expectations for sharply reduced throughput, reflecting the tight cattle supply picture. However, the decrease in production was not enough to offset the seasonal downturn in beef demand entering February. Expect the market to remain in a seasonally softer phase, with cutouts supported but not aggressively moving higher unless weather significantly disrupts supply chains.

Poultry

USDA young chicken harvest totaled 172.9 million head for the holiday week, down slightly from the prior week and 2.5 percent below last year. Average bird weights slipped to 6.60 pounds versus 6.77 pounds a year ago. Total production reached 867 million pounds, nearly five percent below last year. Retail chicken feature activity declined by six percent week over week.

WOG values moved lower across both the national composite and most foodservice weight categories. National WOGs eased three cents, and foodservice items pulled back modestly across 2.5–3.5 pound birds and under‑2.5 pound birds, while heavier WOGs held steady.

White meat strengthened again. Boneless/skinless breasts gained six cents and are up fourteen percent month over month, though still well below year‑ago levels. Chicken tenderloins added five cents, up five percent on the month but still trailing last year. Wings continued their upward trend, rising eight cents for the week and now fifteen percent higher month over month, though still forty‑plus percent under last year’s highs. Drumsticks saw small gains. Boneless thigh meat continued to climb, and bone‑in thighs held steady.

Turkey values softened slightly on boneless breasts but remained sharply above last year. Whole birds were unchanged for the week and nearly fifty percent higher year over year. The egg market saw a sharp weekly rebound, with the USDA large shell egg index jumping nearly forty percent week over week, though still far below last month and last year.

Looking ahead, the lighter harvest and weather‑related plant slowdowns should keep chicken prices supported into next week. Even with lower output, demand has remained solid across retail, export, and foodservice channels, offering underlying support to most chicken categories.

Pork

Lean hog markets were mixed last week. The February futures contract declined one percent to $87.70/cwt, while most deferred months posted similar small losses. Cash hogs, however, firmed 2.9 percent to $84.43/cwt. Weekly hog harvest was steady year over year at roughly 2.84 million head. Export activity totaled 923 loads.

The pork cutout declined two percent to $93.43/cwt, with most primals trending lower. Loin values were mostly steady, with boneless loins up slightly and baby back ribs unchanged. Tenderloins posted another modest weekly gain. Pork butts softened overall, with bone‑in butts slightly higher but boneless butts unchanged; export sales were markedly lower at only fifty‑two loads. Rib values were steady, with spareribs edging slightly lower. Bellies weakened two percent, and the derind 13/17 belly slipped modestly. Trim markets were mixed, with 42% trim down and 72% trim up slightly. Hams saw the sharpest decline, falling seven percent for the week.

Looking ahead, even though the cutout moved lower on flat harvest levels, the market is still positioned to firm modestly through February as freezer inventory rebuilds and processors prepare for spring and summer demand needs. Retail demand remains soft, but steady export sales and ongoing freezer programs should continue to lend support to the complex.

Bacon

Belly markets continued to show solid underlying strength heading into February, even with a slight week‑over‑week price decline. The USDA 9–13 derind series averaged lower for the week, but trading momentum shifted noticeably higher by midweek, with Wednesday’s close reaching $179.89/cwt. USDA Primal Bellies displayed more consistent firmness, averaging $130.37/cwt for the week—an increase of $5.72/cwt, or roughly 4.6 percent, compared to the prior week. Overall, the tone in the belly complex remains constructive, supported by fundamentals that point to continued upward risk over the next four to six weeks.

On the supply side, harvest eased from the prior week. USDA estimated federally inspected hog slaughter at 2.484 million head, down 5.3 percent week over week but in line with last year’s levels. Carcass weights held near 220 pounds. This combination of steady weights and lighter throughput tightened near‑term spot offerings just as buyers began leaning into late‑winter and early‑spring bacon features.

Forward sentiment remains cautiously optimistic. The CME Lean Hog Index pushed into the mid‑$84 range by January 26, while April through July futures continue to price in an orderly seasonal rally. Disease surveillance adds another variable to the outlook, with increased PRRS and PED activity posing modest production risk. Cold storage remains comparatively light: belly inventories have not rebuilt to pre‑2020 norms, leaving a thinner supply buffer as seasonal demand improves heading into Q1–Q2.

Collectively, these factors—firmer primals, tightening spot supply, supportive futures, and lean freezer stocks—keep the bacon market positioned for continued firmness as February unfolds.